What happens when the flop pairs one of your cards and delivers a low card too? This continues our post flop analysis of Ac-Ad-2c-3d. I ran these simulations with the same settings as before and the same flop. There was only one difference. I replaced the nine with an eight that does not match the suit of our holding and provides no help toward a low straight.
Simulations were run using Wilson's Turbo Omaha/8 at a full, ten-player table. When we pair our deuce, all the results have a net win even though we do not have a chance at a flush. Last time, when we paired our deuce without a low card, we had a net loss when all three cards were suited, but not to any of our holdings. The average net win for the five flops is $36.63 or more than double that with the eight replaced by the nine of the same suit last time.
If we pair our trey instead of our deuce, the results are quite similar. The average net win increased by less than a dollar. The distribution of how we win and the hands we win with are virtually the same. Whether you pair the deuce or the trey, your chances of making a low are almost identical, at 59.1 percent and 59.2 percent respectively.
When comparing these two starting hands with those in my last article, with only one low card in the flop, there are dramatic changes. First and foremost, a low hand is five times more likely. It increases from an occurrence rate of 11.5 percent to 59.2 percent.
But the biggest increase is in how many low-only hands you win. The percentage of low pots won increases from 1.4 percent to 16.7 percent. An interesting fact occurs in that the increase is mostly at the expense of pots you scoop. Scooping more does not necessarily equate to winning more!
When you pair your ace on the on the flop you have a set and an excellent chance of completing a full house. If the board pairs you will invariably have the best full house possible-though not necessarily the best hand because you are subject to a bad beat from someone holding or improving to quads.
Given the makeup of the possible flops you may also face a straight flush. Those bad beats aside, you certainly would welcome flopping a set of aces because your average win will be $71.02, with a range of net wins from a very respectable $45.73 to an amazing $88.57.
The addition of one extra low card on the flop dramatically increased our winning and the frequency of a low winner.
Next time I will examine what happens when flopping two low cards that allow us to make a low straight, and we'll examine how much your win percentage increases and just how much more effective is it to flop a low straight draw.
So what have we learned? We have a much more powerful starting hand when holding A-2-A-3 double suited and flop a pair with two low cards on the flop then with one.
Anyone needing information on my book-please send email with "book" in the subject line. I have ordered another batch for those wanting a copy.
Sam Mudaro, BA, MBA, is a practicing tax accountant and financial executive with 35 years of analytical business expertise. He uses simulation software to analyze and develop strategies for Omaha/8 and other forms of poker. Reach Sam at: realguru2003@yahoo.com.