Remember that there are two ways to win a pot: Either (1) you have the best hand at the showdown; or (2) your opponents think you have the best hand and fold before the showdown. In the September 19, 2005 issue of Poker Player, I described the "Esther Bluff."; I have been keeping statistics to evaluate its effectiveness. Here are my findings. . .
What about bluffing?: Bluffing is a poker strategy often used to force out an opponent who may actually hold a better hand than you. Most often we do it on the river; sometimes on the turn and then carry it through to the river. (When I bluff on the turn, it's usually a semi-bluff: I have lots of outs that could lead to the best hand. Then, on the river, I may pull the Esther Bluff if I didn't connect and the situation seems right to continue the bluff.)
Basically, you bet or raise - or even reraise - to induce your opponents to toss their hands into the muck. A good time to pull the Esther Bluff is when you have been drawing for a straight or flush, made the bet because the poker odds were favorable, but did not connect. You are up against one, perhaps two opponents, and they show weakness; the situation lends itself to attempt the Esther Bluff. Bet out if you are first to declare; and, by all means, bet if they all check to you. It's even more effective if you have been winning; now your opponents respect and fear you. . .
There are poker experts who will tell you that you can't bluff in lower limit games. I believe that is true for stakes of $2-$4 and lower; on the opposite extreme, we all know that bluffing is a key strategy in no-limit games. (Have you watched the action on the TV poker tournaments?) The higher the stakes, the more likely a good bluff is effective. But, if you do it well and against the "right"; opponents in the "right"; situations, it can work for you even in low-stake games.
The Esther Bluff is really a way to bluff: Bet with confidence; you "know"; you have the best hand! A key factor to its success is the kind of opponent you want to bluff out. Timid and tight players are your best targets. It's less likely to work against aggressive and deceptive opponents. You can never be sure against loose players. Generally, you can't bluff out a player who is almost all-in; for a few more chips, he is bound to call - just in case. . . Nor should you bluff too often; then your opponents will be suspicious and more likely challenge you when you try. What is too often?
That depends on the game, the situation, the players. . . On the average, I believe no more than one bluff an hour seems about right. (What do you think?) Certainly, the situation and your betting position should be considered.
If you have been betting or raising all along, then your opponents are more likely to fold when you pull the Esther Bluff on the river. It's foolhardy to try it against an opponent who has been betting consistently or raising; he must have a hand of some value and is not likely to give it up without a fight. It's easier to bluff an opponent out of a small pot; but the Esther Bluff has worked for me in large pots too. It's best to pull the bluff if you sense weakness in your opponents; that's easier to do when you are in a late position. My statistics on using the "Esther Bluff";: Admittedly, mine is a limited sampling; but the general observations are worth noting.
In 15 sessions of $4-$8, my Esther Bluff was effective in 33 out of 55 attempts. That's a 60 percent success rate. It succeeded 50 percent more often than it failed. Fantastic! As a rule, you will break even if your bluffs succeed one out of five or six times. That's because you win the whole pot -- containing lots of bets -- for the price of one or two big bets. That's a great investment! (Note: In 11 sessions of $3-$6, my Esther Bluffs worked for me in almost 58 percent of the attempts.)
Sure, in some of these hands I may, in fact, have held a better hand than my opponents; I'll never know. Even if we assume that was the case in half of these "successful"; bluffs (that's reasonable), I am still way ahead with about 43 percent of my "Esther Bluffs"; being effective. Usually, the bluffs that didn't "work"; were when the opponent actually had a hand worth calling with. On a few rare occasions, he raised me with a strong hand; I should have been more cautious in those cases.
So, all in all, the Esther Bluff is a great strategy even in games with limits as low as $3-$6, albeit higher limits certainly would be preferable. . . . So readers, what's YOUR opinion?
