You're playing a $2-$4 no-limit hold 'em cash game and it's folded to you in the cutoff with A5o. You raise to $12. The button folds, the small blind calls, and the big blind folds. The pot contains $28, and the flop is Ac-Qs-6h. The small blind checks to you, as he almost always will. With top-pair/weak-kicker two lines of play exist:
Line 1: Bet the Flop. Betting poses some problems in this particular situation:
• Some players employ lines of play like check-raising the flop or stop-and-goes, where they check/call on the flop with the intention of leading on the turn. Against good opponents, it's hard to know where you are against such lines of play.
• Players with lesser hands will only call a bet on the flop, meaning that betting on the turn effectively turns your hand into a bluff. Turning made hands into bluffs isn't always a bad thing. But if better alternatives exist, then it's something you should avoid doing.
• If you check the turn with the intention of inducing a bluff on the river, the problem is that your hand doesn't beat a lot of non-bluffing hands. Your opponent needs to bet a pair of queens for value to make this a good line of play; you don't want to turn your pair of aces into nothing more than a bluff-catcher.
Line 2: Check the Flop. If you check the flop, betting the turn, the river will typically follow one of these patterns:
• Check/bet/call on the turn followed by check/bet/call on the river
• Check/bet/call on the turn followed by bet/call on the river
• Bet/call on the turn followed by bet/call on the river
Calling bets assume that your opponent makes reasonably-sized wagers with respect to the pot. If your opponent will call a raise from the small blind with something like {TT-44, AK-A5, KQ-K8, QJ-Q9, JT}, you are:
• Behind {66, AK-A6} = 63 combinations
• Tying A5 = 6 combinations
• Leading {KQ, QJ-Q9, TT-77} = 66 combinations
• Leading {55-44} = 9 combinations
• Leading {KJ-K8, JT} = 80 combinations
{KQ, QJ-Q9, TT-77} are hands you're likely to extract value from on the turn and the river if you check the flop, and all of them are 3- or 5-outers. Moreover, they're hands you're likely to get only one bet out of if you bet the flop). {55-44} are hands that aren't likely to give you money on the turn or river unless they improve to sets, but 5-5 is a 1-outer and 4-4 is a 3-outer. {KJ-K8, JT} are hands that have six outs to under-pairs that may give you action on the turn and the river. KJ and JT also have four outs to a gutshot straight draw, but you stand to lose no more than you would gain against these hands, so allowing them to catch up is a net plus for you.
You have a pair of aces, so you aren't worried about over-cards that can constrain your ability to extract value. Since your opponent can't have any big draws, the downside of allowing a free card on the turn doesn't outweigh the additional value you stand to get on the turn and the river, and checking the flop is an attractive alternative to betting.
You shouldn't always check the flop with top pair with the intention of creating value. If you have something like A-T on a ten-high flop with two hearts on the board, you should bet the flop all the time because jacks, queens, and kings, and hearts are all cards that prevent you from extracting value in later betting rounds.
Checking the flop with a mediocre hand to create value is best done when you have a pair of kings or aces on a board without many draws. This doesn't happen often, but when facing tough competition, you must check the flop to create value whenever it's reasonable to do so. It extracts more value, and it demonstrates that you don't just check the flop with air.
Tony Guerrera is the author of Killer Poker by the Numbers and Killer Poker Shorthanded (with John Vorhaus). Visit him online at www.killerev.com, and check out his weekly show, Killer Poker Analysis, on Rounder's Radio (www.roundersradio.com) Fridays from 5:00PM to 6:00PM Pacific Time.
