Dancing Away With the Chips: The Hold’em Two-Step for Limit Players

In hold’em, there are only three made hands before the flop: A-A, K-K, and Q-Q. They can win without further improvement much of the time, although Q-Q is on the cusp. If an ace or king falls, pocket queens become chopped liver. Most playable starting hands are drawing hands that must improve to take the pot. We are assuming that you bluff only when circumstances permit, which is infrequent. In limit hold’em, most pots are won by the best hand at the showdown.
 
First Step. To finish the dance with the winning hand, the first step is to start with a good pre-flop hand: Two hole cards with a reasonable chance of becoming the best hand. With only three made hands before the flop, the majority of decent starting hands are draws that must improve. Premium drawing hands—A-K, A-Q, perhaps A-J, K-Q suited, and medium pairs (J-J down to 8-8) can be played in any position. In later positions, additional drawing hands are playable provided there is no raise before the flop; and, preferably, it is a multi-way pot with three or more opponents.
 
Since the odds are against connecting on the flop, you want to play inexpensively with high pot odds so your pre-flop investment is profitable in the long run. Some books have tables that help you make that decision; the Hold’em Algorithm provides a simple formula making it easier and less stressful. Many players have their own criteria—right or wrong. In any case, the first step toward winning the pot is to start with hole cards that have a reasonable chance of becoming the best hand at the end.
 
Second Step. A good starting hand—the first step in our two-step dance—is essential but not sufficient to scooping the chips at the showdown. The second step is equally important: Drawing hands must connect with the flop. Recall the words made famous by the O.J. Simpson murder trial: “If the glove don’t fit, you must acquit.” In limit hold’em, we modify those words: “If you don’t connect on the flop, your hand don’t fit.”
 
Consider folding whenever the flop doesn’t fit your hand. We’re assuming that you are not going to bluff; in most cases in limit hold’em, you must hold the best hand at the showdown.  In no-limit games, by comparison, bluffing is more effective because there is no limit on the bet size and opponents are more likely to fold against—or in anticipation of—a huge bet.
 
It is important to hit the flop because, at that point, you will have seen over 70 percent of your final hand. That does not mean that you must have caught a made hand, although that would be great. Example: Starting with K-Q suited, you will pair up on the flop only one out of three times. The odds are 2-to-1 against you. Your six outs give you a reasonable chance of pairing up on the turn or the river—and is playable if the pot odds are higher than the card odds. With two chances to pair up, the card odds are about 3-to-1 against you. And if you happen to catch two more cards to a king-high flush, now you have 9 more outs. With 15 outs—assuming there is no ace on the board—and two cards yet to come, you are better than even-money to connect. Any reasonable pot gives you a positive expectation.
 
In Summary: Unless you are bluffing, it takes two steps to dance away with the pot at the showdown. You must take both steps. If step two doesn’t give you the best hand, you need lots of outs to warrant investing further in that hand—and you still need a little luck!
 
George “The Engineer” Epstein is the author of The Greatest Book of Poker for Winners! and Hold’em or Fold’em?—An Algorithm for Making the Key Decision and teaches poker at the Claude Pepper Sr. Citizen Center in Los Angeles. Contact George at geps222@msn.com.