[Editor's Note: The initial article in this series appeared in our November 9, 2009 issue. Regretfully, we lost track of the concluding segment until now. If you would like to, revisit... part one]
In the first installment of my "Deal or No Deal" series, I introduced some of the questions about whether a tournament deal is inherently fair or unfair. In this, the second part of that article, I'll attempt to answer those questions.
How do you know if a proposed tournament deal works for you? First, consider the financial advantages of making the deal as opposed to playing out the tournament. Estimate where you are likely to finish if the tournament is played out. If you are already in the money, for example, compare what you think you are likely to make if you play things out (considering your relative stack size and your relative skill as a poker player) and what you are being offered to settle. For example, if there are ten of you in a very top heavy tournament, with all but the top three places making just a little more than the buy-in of $100, and you're offered $300 to chop up the pot ten ways, you should strongly think about settling. Your small stack size makes it unlikely that you'll finish among the top three; $300 is more than double what you'll likely earn if you play out the tournament. On the other hand, if you're in the same situation and are offered $130, then the deal doesn't look as appealing - since you're guaranteed of making that money even if you get knocked out next.
Sometimes, however, a deal is proposed that seems initially tempting, but really isn't worth accepting. A player with a big stack suggests that he take first place money, and that you five others, who are all have relatively small stacks, divide up the rest. No matter how steep or shallow the prize structure, this is a bad deal for everyone but him. No matter how little you each have, your cumulative chances of finishing first are worth something. Make him chip in something from first place before you chop up the rest.
Similarly, you must factor in your relative ability before fairly sizing up a deal. If you're the best among five players, all of you with relatively equal stacks, it would be a mistake for you to accept a chop of one fifth of the prize pool. Given your relative skill, your earning potential is greater than your opponents. Why settle for an equal cut?
But even if you estimate correctly that a deal makes sense for financial reasons, it still may not make sense for you to end the tourney early with a deal. Deals may be unappealing for other reasons. You or one of your competitors may really want to play - because you enjoy playing. Making a deal often cuts a tournament short - or at least makes the remaining time in the tournament less meaningful. What if playing in this tournament and having a shot at first place money is the most important event of your life? Why would you want to shortchange yourself of the fun and excitement of such an event? It's certainly legitimate to say that you don't want to settle, no matter how sweet the deal appears to be for you financially, just because you want to continue to play.
On the other hand, you may to want to end early, even if you are getting the worst of it in a deal. You may have a pressing appointment or you may see a cash game that looks really juicy. Or you might just be bored. Whatever the reason, you may want to make that deal.
Each person needs to decide for himself whether a deal makes sense. This is sometimes hard - since other people, with other interests, may be trying to get you to do what they want. As was the case in this FARGO tournament, it may prove difficult for you to withstand the pressure of a pushy opponent - or even a few pushy opponents. But who said playing poker was supposed to be easy?
The bottom line is this. Before making a deal, think about whether or not it works for you. And then, never make a deal that you don't want to make. If you can't stomach standing up for yourself when peer pressure is applied, maybe you should take up a more gentle sport that avoids this type of stress - like boxing.
Ashley Adams is the author of Winning 7-Card Stud and Winning No Limit Low Limit Hold'em. He hosts the radio show House of Cards, broadcast Mondays at 5 - 6 p.m. in Boston, MA, on 1510 AM, and on the Internet at www.houseofcardsradio.com. Contact Ashley at asha34@aol.com.
