I was in a $1 - $2 blinds no-limit hold 'em game last week, and folded under-the-gun, when I watched six players see an un-raised flop of 10 spade 8 heart 8 spade. The big blind, Mrs. Goldman, bet $10, with four other players calling. The turn was the 3 diamond. Mrs. Goldman bet $20, and just Mick, the cutoff, and Aaron, on the button, called. The river was the 3 of clubs. Mrs. Goldman bet $100, and both opponents folded.
A routine hand, right? Well, it would have been except for what happened. Mrs. Goldman showed the 8 club as she folded her hand, and Mick exploded. "Can't I hit a draw?" He reached into the muck, grabbed his cards, and showed the A spade 9 spade. "I haven't hit a draw in forever."
The math of poker doesn't change whether you're a maniac or a tight player. If you flop a flush draw, you will make your hand 35 percent of the time with two cards to come and 19.6 percent of the time with one card to come. That means that most of the time you will not make your draw.
If you play poker long enough you will eventually hit a streak where you hit every draw, even your gut-shots. Conversely, sometime in the future you will consistently miss every draw, even your straight flush draws, for days on end.
Missing a draw on one hand has no effect on your next draw; they are independent events. Even if you, like Mick, think that the dealer is out to get you, whether or not you will make your draw is a matter of luck. But that doesn't mean that skill doesn't enter into the equation.
Let's look at Mick's actions on this hand. He flopped a flush draw with $12 in the pot, a bet of $10, and three players besides Mick called. He was certainly getting the right price to see the turn. Similarly, with $52 in the pot and a bet of only $20, Mick was priced in on the turn. He just got unlucky.
Some of us handle disappointment well. Mick doesn't. On the very next hand Mick missed a straight draw. Just a few hands later he missed a straight flush draw. Then he went on tilt. With Mrs. Goldman all but saying she had a monster hand-she kept looking back and forth between the board and her hand before betting-Mick decided that this was the ideal time to put in a bluff check raise. That cost him most of his chips. I got his remaining pinfeathers on the next hand when I turned a flush. "You hit a flush, but...." The rest of his remarks got lost as he headed for the exit.
Of course, there are worse things than missing your draws. You can make your draws and still lose the hand. A couple of years ago I held J spade 9 diamond in a no-limit game and faced one opponent. The flop was Q diamond10 diamond 8 diamond. I bet on the semi-bluff and my opponent called. The turn was the J diamond giving me a straight flush. I made a pot-sized bet and my opponent again called. On the river I made another pot-sized bet and my opponent managed to find the call with A diamond K diamond. (As to why he didn't raise with a royal flush, that's a question for another day.) Needless to say, I managed to be in the unique position of drawing dead and getting there.
When you miss your draws just smile, and move on to the next hand. If you feel yourself getting upset, then take a break or you'll likely find yourself with a lot fewer chips.
Russell Fox is the co-author of "Mastering No-Limit Hold 'em," "Why You Lose at Poker," and "Winning Strategies for No-Limit Hold 'em." He's a federally licensed tax preparer specializing in gambling, with a blog at taxabletalk.com.
