Flipping Out

In Texas hold’em, if one player begins the hand with a wired pair and his lone opponent holds two overcards both larger than that pair, this is said to be a coin flip. Before the flop each player has about a 50/50 shot at winning the hand. Something like 9-9 versus A-K would be a very common coin flip scenario. But if the pocket pair is deuces then any two unpaired cards—provided that one of the two cards is not a deuce—in the opponent’s hand would produce the same result. Since the whole concept of the coin flip is based on both players moving all-in before the flop, the term is used almost exclusively in no-limit games, particularly tournaments.
 
Coin flips are also referred to as a race situation. Either way, it’s something of a misnomer because it’s not truly a 50/50 proposition. In this match-up, a pocket pair is always the favorite to win before the flop. Overcards must improve to win while pocket pairs can drag the pot as-is, so the real odds are closer to something like 53-to-47 in favor of the pair. Whenever you are thinking about risking all of your chips on a coin flip, you must first consider which side of this coin you’re on.
 
In a no-limit tournament, coin flip situations are pretty much inevitable. In fact, many players believe that it’s impossible to win a multi-table tournament without coming out on top of at least a few coin flips. But should you welcome an opportunity to commit all your chips on a coin flip, or should you avoid it like the plague? The answer, as always, is that it depends. When making this decision you need to consider all of the following:
 
• the size of you stack in relation to the other players and to the blinds,
 • what odds the pot is laying you,
 • how close you are to the money,
 • how aggressive your opponents have been playing, and
 • whether or not you believe that you are more skilled than your opponents.
 Because they can easily go either way, coin flips can feel more like gambling than strategic play. Any time that you put all your money in on an even-money proposition, you’re essentially putting yourself at the mercy of the poker gods. For this reason, skilled players generally try to avoid coin flips, especially when the opposition is weak. Against typical poker riff-raff, good players are better off waiting for a more advantageous spot to get their money in, or seeing flops so they can outplay opponents after the flop. In an uneven contest, the superior player should do everything possible to minimize the importance of luck and maximize the importance of skill, and that means staying away from coin flips whenever possible.
 On the other hand, if you are the one who is relatively unskilled in comparison to your opponents, coin flips can work to your advantage. In this case you want to maximize luck and minimize skill as a means of trying to even out the playing field a bit. By the same token, if your chip stack is shrinking so low that you’ll be blinded off soon anyway then you must gamble more, and a 50/50 proposition starts to look pretty darned attractive.
 As with everything in poker, it comes down to risk versus reward. Is the reward of building up your chip stack worth the 50 percent risk of busting out? Is the reward of eliminating an opponent worth the 50 percent risk of doubling him up? It’s highly situational.
 And needless to say, there is a huge distinction between betting all your chips on a probable coin flip, and calling off all your chips on one. In the first case, your fold equity gives you a tremendous added advantage. You might win the hand uncontested. In the second case, that obviously cannot happen and all you can do is shove in your chips, chant “Just one time!” and hope that the poker gods are listening.
 Barbara Connors is a sucker for classic old movies, science fiction, and the St. Louis Cardinals. Her life’s ambition is to figure out the unusual behavior patterns of that unique breed of humans who call themselves poker players. Contact her at fyreflye222@yahoo.com.