This mixture of skill and chance makes poker different from other games of skill such as chess and go, where chance plays no element. The skill in poker has to do with understanding the nature of random events and being able to devise winning strategies in an environment run by random processes. It's amazing that games played with a deck of only 52 cards can foster decision-making skills applicable to all areas of life. It's a shame that many, including policy makers at the highest levels of governments, seemingly don't understand this.
In any game, a strategy is the defined set of all possible actions that a player can take in all possible situations. In games involving an element of chance, the expected value of a strategy is the sum of the payouts corresponding to each outcome multiplied by the respective probabilities of each outcome occurring. The skill in poker is finding and implementing the strategy that either:
1. Has the highest expected value against particular opponents (exploitative poker)
2. Can't be beaten by any opponent (equilibrium poker)
An interesting consequence of this definition of skill is that the skill in poker isn't necessarily confined to what a player does when playing. The ability to perform meaningful analyses away from the table is an essential skill for those wishing to devise strategies effective against high-level opponents.
Because of the combinatorics involving a standard deck of 52 cards, we're not quite at the point where computers are able to solve any of the currently popular poker variants completely for the equilibrium strategy. As a result, it's probably best to say that today's high-level players adopt a style that's semi-exploitative and semi-equilibrium in nature.
Suppose you're in a six-handed no-limit hold 'em game where the small blind and the big blind will only play 10 percent of their hands and you open to three big blinds from the button. If you're playing pure exploitative poker, you could probably maximize your profits by opening to three big blinds from the button 100 percent of the time action folds to you, provided that you play well when you don't steal the blinds outright. However, playing a purely exploitative strategy leaves you open to being counter-exploited.
The better your foes are, the better they'll be at counter-exploiting you. As a result, survival in tough games is about taking advantage of opponents' leaks in a way that makes it difficult for opponents to counter-exploit you. In deeply stacked no-limit hold 'em, high-level strategy for playing each position boils down to two important concepts:
1. Playing different hands the same way
2. Playing the same hand different ways
If you three-bet A-A pre-flop, then you also need to be willing to three-bet hands like 5-4s pre-flop to threaten having the nuts on a wide range of boards. If you three-bet shove flush draws on the flop, then you also need to be willing to three-bet shove top set on the flop.
Force your opponents to play against distributions, but it don't stop there. To prevent your actions from betraying your distributions, you also need to play the same hand differently. If you're inclined to call a pre-flop raise in position with K-Q, then you also need to call a pre-flop raise in position at least a small percentage of the time you're dealt A-A because if you only three-bet pocket aces, then your opponents know that you can't have A-A when you just call. If you're going to make pot-sized bluffs on the river, then you also need to make pot-sized bets with made hands that you'd usually make smaller value bets with. Mix it up, maintain balance, and give your foes fits!
Tony Guerrera is the author of Killer Poker by the Numbers and Killer Poker Shorthanded (with John Vorhaus). Visit him online at www.killerev.com, and check out his weekly show, Killer Poker Analysis, on Rounder's Radio (www.roundersradio.com) Fridays from 5:00PM to 6:00PM Pacific Time.
