If you had X-ray eyes and could see through the backs of your opponent's cards, you would know exactly what he held. But only Superman had that power. You and I-we are mere mortals. So we'll have to be satisfied with the next best thing: Trying to read our opponent's hole cards.
An opponent-we'll call him Len-in an early position called before the flop, then raised on the flop. What do you think he has in the hole? What's your best guess? You know Len is a tight player, not tricky and deceptive, so you can safely assume he started with a strong hand-perhaps a medium pair or premium drawing hand like A-K, A-Q, or K-Q. Since he didn't raise pre-flop, most likely he doesn't have A-A, K-K, or Q-Q.
The flop came down with an ace: A-s, 9-d, 3-c.
So what do you guess Len has in the hole? My best guess is that he connected for a pair of aces, or perhaps a set of nines. That would be my read of his hand. I started with pocket 10s, hoping to make a set on the flop. Clearly, at that point, it is best to fold my hand and save my chips for another battle.
On the other hand, let's say Len is an aggressive player who bluffs frequently. Now when he raised on this flop, I doubt that he has the aces. That's what he is trying to represent; but, based on my assessment of his playing style, I think he is trying to steal the pot. So I will stay in.
My options are to call his raise or re-raise. A re-raise earns his respect and likely gets me a free card on the turn. And it might also force out the original bettor who would be faced with a double raise. That would vastly improve the chance of my pocket tens holding up.
Before making that decision, try to read the hand of Jan, the original bettor. Could she have flopped a pair of aces or a set? Again it depends on how I assess her playing style. Is Jan a tight, conservative player, or is she loose and aggressive? Having observed her play for over an hour, I know that she is quite conservative and would only bet into the loose-aggressive player with a strong hand. So I put Jan on a pair of aces with a big kicker, or a set. Those are my reads of both opponents. Even though I don't have X-ray vision like Superman, I know that my hand is beaten by at least one of them. Folding saves me money.
Getting a read on your opponents' hands is the next best thing to having Superman's X- ray eyes. An astute player knows how to accomplish that goal: Observe opponents' actions and betting patterns and any tells he may inadvertently display. Don't underestimate the value of a tell. Does he smile when he has a strong hand? Based on his previous hands, do his eyes give a clue?
My Basic Poker Rule No. 4 says that a winning player must be alert and focus on his opponents' behavior and mannerisms when playing different hands. That's the only way you can get a read on their hands later when it is important. Call it an art. Since you don't have X-ray eyes, careful observation is the next best thing. Be alert!
So, readers, what's your opinion?
George "The Engineer" Epstein is the author of The Greatest Book of Poker for Winners! and Hold'em or Fold'em?-An Algorithm for Making the Key Decision and teaches poker at the Claude Pepper Sr. Citizen Center in Los Angeles. Contact George at geps222@msn.com.
