Have you ever almost dreaded receiving the coveted hands of A-A or K-K because it seems that every time you do they are cracked? If you believe this, it must be confirmation bias because they really are the two best starting hands in hold’em. Let’s take a closer look at these two terrific hands and the likelihood of their not prevailing so we may put it all into perspective to see just how “crack proof” they are.
The most significant variable to how successful these top hands will be at the showdown is the number of opponents they are facing. Players raise with these hands in the hopes of thinning the field and increasing their odds of winning. Let’s look at a common scenario where even after bringing it in for a raise you still get four other players who decide they want their train ticket punched for a ride to the river. Imagine holding As-Ac and having attempted to thin the field, but still getting four hitchhikers with the following holdings… Ah-10h, Qd-Jd, 8c-8s and 4h-4c. You are clearly a prohibitive favorite against any one of these hands but not against them collectively. In this scenario you would actually lose in a showdown about 60 percent of the time.
Let’s look at the same group of hands contesting a pot against our hand of Ks-Kc. Now you will lose 66 the percent of time. Wow… 60 and 66 percent of the time we figure to lose with A-A or K-K against a field of four other players with suited connectors and pairs. When you realize this, there is no reason to get upset if one of these top quality starting hands happens to get cracked. In fact, it is the reason that so many players think these hands are jinxed. In reality, against a field of four opposing players, you should be quite happy if they do prevail.
Eliminating one of the four opponents improves your chances of prevailing to approximately 50 to 53 percent depending upon the mix of hands. So even against just three other opponents you are certainly not a prohibitive favorite to win. While it might be considered unrealistic to see this mix of hands go all the way to the river, there are many loose and passive games where this does occur. One way to help discourage this type behavior is to be aggressive and try to protect your hand.
As we’ve seen, the number of opponents is the key to how well these hands will perform. If you are heads up with A-A against K-K you should win an impressive 83 percent of the time while if you’re unfortunate enough to be that other player with the K-K, you’ll lose on average 83 percent of the time. I know which side of this equation I want to be on!
Our goal for today is twofold. First, to understand that pocket kings or pocket aces doesn’t entitle you to an easy win should help you cope with the disappointment of losing with them. They are certainly not invulnerable and if all players realized that, there would be a lot less whining at the poker tables. Second, knowing that the key to their success is the breadth of the field they face should encourage you to do all that is possible to narrow down the number of opponents. One last thought… don’t slow play these hands hoping to build a big pot. Settle for winning a small pot versus losing a large one.
See you next “TIME.”
Tom “Time” Leonard has played poker in Atlantic City, Las Vegas, and California for more than 30 years and written about the game since 1994. Contact Tom at thleonard@msn.com.
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