I had been playing for about four hours in a $4-$8 hold 'em game at a local casino and not doing well. I was on my second buy-in at a loose table with lots of poker pigeons. With a little luck, I was sure I could make up for my losses and go home a winner. Sound familiar?
In the big blind, I was dealt 7-4 off-suit. The under-the-gun player to my left raised and I was thinking about folding. But when five other opponents called his raise, giving me pot odds of about 13-to-1, I decided it was worth another small bet to see the flop. You never know what the flop will bring.
The flop gave me an open-ended draw to a small straight: my hand-7h-4s; the flop-6d-5s-Jc
After I checked, there was a series of bets and raises until the betting was capped with a third raise. No one folded. It was becoming a monster pot. With an open-ended straight draw that gave me eight outs to the likely winning hand, I knew I was getting very favorable pot odds to call. With both the turn and river cards yet to come, eight outs yields card odds of 2-to-1 against. With six opponents betting and calling, I didn't have to count the chips in the pot to realize I was getting well over 6-to-1 pot odds-a heck of a lot more than the card odds. The call certainly was a Positive Expectation bet.
The turn card, the deuce of clubs, didn't help me, though it probably didn't help anyone else either. Again there was a series of bets and raises. With only the river card to come, my pot odds were reduced to about 5-to-1 against-still quite attractive considering the huge pot odds with all those chips already in the pot plus six opponents staying in to see the river. Again the betting was capped with a third raise. This easily was the biggest pot of the night! Winning this one hand could make my day, I thought to myself...
I'll admit that I prayed silently to the erstwhile poker gods. Then the dealer dropped the river card on the board: 3s
Wow!!! I had connected with my straight. I had just enough chips for one more big bet. I bet out. Three opponents called me-and mucked their hands when they saw my straight to the seven. "Baby, baby!" I exclaimed as the dealer pushed the pot to me. That one pot put me well ahead for the night.
Yes, I was lucky... The poker gods had smiled on me for that moment. Was it just plain dumb luck? I choose to believe that there was considerable skill involved. Pre-flop, I was aware that the pot odds would be favorable for me to call a single raise. With six opponents staying to see the flop, the implied pot odds had to be attractive. Post-flop, once I had an open-ended straight draw-and flushes or full-houses seemed unlikely, I was getting very favorable pot odds compared to my card odds. Indeed, I had a Positive Expectation; probability was heavily in my corner. Still, I had to get lucky to catch the miracle trey on the river. Thank you, poker gods.
Comments?
George "The Engineer" Epstein is the author of The Greatest Book of Poker for Winners! and Hold'em or Fold'em?-An Algorithm for Making the Key Decision and teaches poker at the Claude Pepper Sr. Citizen Center in Los Angeles. Contact George at geps222@msn.com.
