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Know The Numbers

The average poker IQ has increased substantially over the past few years. Players are more experienced and valuable information is readily accessible. Yet some players still haven't taken the time to know the basic numbers governing their variants of choice.

Poker is about more than just hitting hands-after all, you win hands either by showing down the best hand or by betting in a fashion that makes your opponents fold. But the numbers having to do with the cards are a fundamental part of the game. You don't need to perform fancy combinatorics on the fly. But you should, at the very least, know approximate probabilities having to do with commonly encountered situations.

If you play Texas hold 'em, you should know the answers to questions like the following:

• What's the probability that A-Ko wins against 7-6s when all-in pre-flop? (About 58%)

• What's the probability that A-Ko wins against 7-6o when all-in pre-flop? (About 62%)

• What's the probability that K-K wins against A-Ks when all-in pre-flop? (About 65%)

• What's the probability that A-Ko wins against A-Qo when all-in pre-flop? (About 72%)

• What's the probability that T-T wins against A-Ks when all-in pre-flop? (About 54%)

• What's the probability that A-Qs wins when all-in pre-flop against an opponent on [AA-88, AK-AQ]? (About 32%)

• What's the probability of flopping one pair, two pair, trips, or quads with unpaired hole cards? (About 32%)

• What's the probability of flopping a set or better with a pocket pair (not including a full house where the flop is three-of-a-kind)? (About 12%)

• What's the probability of hitting a draw of N outs with 2 cards to come (i.e. you flop a draw and you think you'll get to see both the turn and the river)? (About 4N% when N = 9; 38% when N = 10; 42% when N = 11; 45% when N = 12; 48% when N = 13; greater than 50% when N = 14)

Playing hold 'em without knowing answers to questions like these is like dueling without a gun. Going into battle unarmed is suicidal. Poker is a game of information-the players with the most information are poised to perform best in the long run.

To get started with studying the math of the poker variant(s) you like to play, you should obtain a hand simulator for your computer. If you play hold'em, Poker Stove (found at www.pokerstove.com) is probably the best simulator available. It outperforms most other free hand simulators because it allows you to do calculations involving hand distributions. (If you're putting opponents on specific hands rather than hand distributions, you're not properly engaged in the process of reading your opponents).

You should also study some basic probability. Google around for an introduction to basic probability, or check out the poker book section in a nearby bookstore. A few books contain at least some basics on the numbers. And some, like Killer Poker By The Numbers and Tournament Killer Poker by the Numbers, provide extremely rigorous treatments.

With a working knowledge of the numbers, you'll be able to focus more on reading your opponents and thinking through various lines of play. This is especially important if you play online, because you're always on a strict clock when it's your turn to act. In the end, educating yourself away from the tables will equip you with more tools to use when you're at the tables. And with a varied arsenal, you'll be in the best position possible to exploit the opposition.

Tony Guerrera is the author of Killer Poker by the Numbers and Killer Poker Shorthanded (with John Vorhaus). Visit him online at www.killerev.com, and check out his weekly show, Killer Poker Analysis, on Rounder's Radio (www.roundersradio.com) Fridays from 5:00PM to 6:00PM Pacific Time.

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