There’s a hierarchy of thought in poker... ascending Levels of thinking about the game. Not surprisingly, typical suckers are only able to think on the first level. An intelligent game of poker doesn’t even begin to exist until you reach Level 2, but truly skilled players should be able to think at least up through Level 4. Beyond that, it’s a matter of debate how many Levels of thinking really exist, or how productive it is to even try going beyond Level 5.
 
Level 1 is: What kind of hand do I have? A Level 1 player holding J-10 suited and watching the flop come down J-8-3 rainbow is thinking, Yesssss! I have top pair! And aside from maybe wondering about the game on TV, he’s really not thinking much else. At Level 2 the player begins to contemplate: What kind of hand does my opponent have? Now our player with J-10 begins to wonder if anybody has a jack with a better kicker. Long-term winning play is impossible without at least this level of thinking.
 
But we’re just getting warmed up. At Level 3 the player also considers, What does he think I have? Going back to our player with J-10, let’s say it’s checked to him on the button and he bets his top pair, only to get check-raised by a middle-position player. Now the answer to that question, What does he think I have? becomes critical. If Mr. J-10 believes that the check-raiser read him as making a pure position bet, it tells him the check-raiser may have a weak hand and his jacks might still be in the lead. But if the button player believes that the middle-position player read him as having the goods when he pushed out his initial bet, then the middle-position player’s check-raise is a huge red flag.
 
Level 4 is where the real fun begins. At Level 4 you ponder: What does he think I think he has? Returning to our example, J-10 decided that the middle-position player read him for a position bet and check-raised as a bluff. So he re-raised. The middle-position player answered by popping it again. The question becomes: Does the middle-position player know that the button was reading him for a bluff? If so, that means the middle-position player might still believe the button player doesn’t really have anything. Which in turn means the middle-position’s latest re-raise could be a re-bluff because he’s convinced the button thought his first check-raise was just a bluff.
 
Obviously there are other important factors to consider here—other possible opponents in the hand, the stakes, etc—but all things being equal, this level of play is as much about what you think he thinks you have, and what he thinks you think he has, as it is about the actual cards.
 
These levels of thinking can go on ad infinitum. Level 5: What does he think I think he thinks I have? Level 6: What does he think I think he thinks I think he has? And so on. As the levels of thinking get higher and more complex, it can be like playing poker inside an M.C. Escher drawing. When thought processes get that convoluted you may end up outthinking yourself. As a practical matter, most poker players never go beyond Level 4 ... well, maybe Level 5.
 
It’s worth noting that the benefit of thinking on these exalted levels is very dependent on the quality of your opponents. It’s pointless to think beyond Level 2 if you’re playing against brain-dead fish who don’t even realize that the game of poker can be played beyond Level 1. Higher Levels of thinking are much more effective against skilled opponents who are themselves capable of sophisticated poker cogitation. And those lofty levels of poker thought work best against opponents you know very well—who also know you well. That’s when the poker mind games can really get elaborate.
 
Barbara Connors is a sucker for classic old movies, science fiction, and the St. Louis Cardinals. Her life’s ambition is to figure out the unusual behavior patterns of that unique breed of humans who call themselves poker players. Contact her at fyreflye222@yahoo.com.