Summer had arrived. I could tell because Linda Mae entered our local poker room wearing sandals, short shorts, a lobster bib, and sunglasses. She vectored over to my chair and insisted that I explain, completely and thoroughly, "outs." I told her an "out" is any card that would make or improve her hand. Each "out" is a 2.2% chance to improve, so the more outs, the better.
Suppose your starting hand were [Qh]-[Jh] and these cards flopped, [Th]-[9s]-[3h]. One of the nine other hearts would make a Flush; any one of the non-heart Kings, [Kd]-[Ks]-[Kc], or non-heart Eights, [8d]-[8s]-[8c], would make a Straight; and, any one of the remaining six Jacks and Queens would make a Pair. So any of 21 "outs" would make a Pair or better.
Suppose your starting Hold'Em hand were Ad-Kd and the first four cards on the tableau were [3d]-[9d]-[2c]-[Ks]. You would have a made hand, Top Pair and Top Kicker. Any one of the nine remaining diamonds would make a Flush; one of the three remaining Aces, Aa-As-Af, would make the top Two Pairs; one of the two remaining Kings, [Kh]-[Kc], would make Trip Kings. You would have 14 "outs" to improve your hand. Suppose you limped with [Td]-[9d] and the board came [Qh]-[Tc]-[9s]. You flopped Two Pairs, but the betting suggested that someone held a hand like [Kd]-[Jc]. How many "outs" would you have? "Well," she answered, "if any of the four remaining Eights and Nines came on the Turn or River, then it would improve my hand to a Full House, so I would have four 'outs'." Right, I told her.
Suppose you raised in late position with [Ad]-[5d] and the board came [Kh]-[9c]-[5s]. How many outs would you have, I asked. Either of the two remaining Fives would make Trip Fives, and any of the three remaining Aces would make Aces-Up: she reckoned correctly that she would have five "outs."
"Yes, but so what," she asked. "Any fool knows you have more chances to hit a Flush (9) or a Straight (8) than to make a Set (2)."
If we were playing for matchsticks on your kitchen table, that might be enough, I answered, but we're not. Poker is always played for money, and money decisions are uppermost, even at low-limit Hold'Em.
Since each "out" is a 2.2% chance to improve, you can quickly figure whether to pay to see the Turn and/ or the River. With five "outs," your pot odds must be 10 for 1, or better. With four "outs," you need 12 for 1, or better, pot odds, etc. If your money odds aren't larger than your chances, then you're just gambling.
Linda Mae countered by saying that she didn't do any of that "out stuff," and she was a winning player. I agreed that her intuition guided her through that maze we call Hold'Em.
If the decisions are close, then they will even out in the long run, I said, but, for example, you don't want to chase with only a small Pair (2 outs) when your pot odds are less than 25 for 1. Deciding whether to bet or fold depending on your pot odds and outs-count, will help you avoid chasing, and thereby save you mucho dinero. She thanked me for explaining "outs," and headed toward her low-limit Hold'Em game. I called after her, "You'd do even better if you paid attention to your 'outs' and pot odds."
