One of the most common psychological mistakes that we make happens automatically within our minds. All of us naturally look for common patterns in nearly everything that we encounter. With that, we often mistake a simple correlation for a cause. I remember a comical example of this on a newscast last summer, when a reporter warned of a study that showed whenever ice cream sales increased, serious boating accidents were ten times more likely! He was clearly implying that ice cream consumption had something to do with the cause of boat wrecks. The correlation of ice cream to boating troubles led him to speak of the relationship as if it was cause and effect. The factor that the reporter failed to note is that the warmer weather leads to more boaters AND more ice cream eaters. Even with this outrageous correlation, I"m willing to bet that many viewers of that news report worried about slurping on their vanilla cone the next time they got behind the wheel!
Those employed in marketing and sales are especially mindful of our habit of linking correlation with cause. Since it is such a common and reliable psychological phenomena, it is very simple for them to exploit. This is why they like to show their product with attractive people in scenes that allure or entice. They know that with our brains on "cruise-control" as we watch TV and flip past magazine ads, we will mindlessly allow the cause-and-effect connection of beer brand "X" equating to fun, energy, and sex. We are then compelled to purchase the product.
This psychological habit is directly seen at the tables, too. Gamblers are often rather superstitious, and poker players are no exception. From lucky chip markers to lucky underpants, many of us have special mementos or rituals that are designed to attempt to influence the hands of fate. When the player thinks through this plan in a rational fashion, he knows that the rabbit"s foot he uses to cap his hole cards will have no true effect on the cards that he is dealt. Still, there is a slight element of reassurance in thinking that we possess some sort of control over the one thing that we cannot - the luck of the cards. For instance, a new poker player sits at a low-limit game wearing a brightly colored Hawaiian shirt. When he catches a great run of cards during that session and ends with a big profit, he may vow that he"ll never play another hand without wearing that bold shirt. He easily disregards the other factors in play in order to psychologically latch onto the correlation, and a "lucky shirt" is born.
Picking up tells can fall into this same category, so we must proceed with caution. Due to our propensity to overvalue correlations, we can make the costly misinterpretation of a simple coincidence and label it as a tell. Don"t allow yourself to simply assume that when your opponent rubs his forehead as he bluffs one time, that this is a solid tell to always rely upon. A single correlation does not make for such assurances. Knowing the psychology of the game is sure to pay off at the table.
Now go make it happen.
