"The biggest leak a limit hold 'em player has," I told Fred, "is chasing when her money odds are less than her card odds. That may cost players more than even inferior starting hands. The table below shows when you should-and shouldn't-chase, when drawing to less than the nuts."
"These conditions apply: a) you must be drawing to the 3/4-nuts; b) the pot's dead money must cover the rake, bad-beat drop, and the dealer's toke-to-be; c) the betting structure must be B-B-2B-2B.
"The leftmost column shows your outs, from 1 to 19 or more. There are ten columns for the number of bets before the turn. (Up to four raises per round.) The more bets before the turn, the bigger and better your money odds are.
"If you chase when you shouldn't, shown in red, then you're just gambling. If you chase when you should, shown in green, then you'll make money in the long run.
"The yellow cells show the number of opponents you must have to chase profitably," I told Fred. "If, at any time, you have fewer opponents than the number shown, then you should abandon the chase."
Similar to the table shown in the previous column on drawing to the nuts, he understood it, but he asked, "What are 3/4-nuts?"
"Any flush, no matter how small, will win 76 percent of the time when there are exactly three trumps and no pair among the community cards," I answered.
"The third-nut straight will win 71 percent of the time with fewer than three trumps, no four-straight, nor pair among the community cards.
"Top and middle two pairs will win 80 percent of the time with fewer than three trumps, no three-straight, nor pair among the community cards.
"For example, suppose you had Aa-8h and four of you saw the flop come Jc-8s-2d after the button raised. The button bet after the flop and three of you called. There would be three bets already. You would have five outs, three aces and two eights. The table shows that with three opponents you should pay to see the river, providing that the board is non-threatening."
By requiring that pots be 33 percent bigger, this table allows for the fact that when you make the lowest flush, lowest straight, top and middle pair, or an open set, you might lose to a better hand.
A hyperbola, 4/3*bets*(opponents+1) > (46/outs-1), obtains the number of opponents for each number of bets and outs. If the number of opponents needed is larger than 9, impossible in a ten-handed game, then those squares are red. If the number of opponents needed is 1 or less, then those squares are green. You can't have 3.67 opponents, so the numbers in all the squares were rounded up, which satisfies the inequality.
This table is so important that I recommend you memorize it. Or as I do, cut it out, have it laminated, and refer to it when you're deciding whether or not to chase with less than the nuts.
The table is copyrighted: You may use it for yourself alone. You may not sell copies nor even give away copies to others.
Mr. Burke is the author of Flop: The Art of Winning at Low-Limit Hold 'Em, on sale at amazon.com & kokopellipress.com. E-mail your Hold 'Em questions to richardburke@comcast.net
