It's just about that time of the year again-time for the circus otherwise known as WSOP to roll into Vegas. I don't mean circus in a pejorative sense, but it's the only word that instantly crosses my mind when I think of the WSOP. Between the media coverage, the colorful personalities, and the bags of predominantly worthless swag to be obtained from the WSOP convention, it's easy to forget that there's some serious money on the line. But maybe that's the beauty of it all. Here's an equation for you all:
Competition + Lots of Money + Craziness = Awesomeness! With my main online poker home, PokerStars, giving their WSOP main event qualifiers $1,000 in cash, 100,000 VPP (VIP Player Points), and an entry to a $1,000,000 freeroll, the overlay for trying to qualify for the main event is too good to pass up-even when it comes to their STEPs tournaments, where the highest levels are consistently populated by some of the best SNG players on PokerStars. Is it the case that I've been completely oblivious, missing out on promotions like this in the past? No time for regrets; the frenzy is clearly on this year, and I'm swept up in it. What better timing for an article devoted to multi-table tournaments? The thoughts below assume you're playing in a multi-table tournament with a top-heavy payout structure.
Thought No. 1: Deeply Stacked No-Limit Hold 'em Isn't About Doubling Up. In most tournaments, action will be deeply stacked for the first few levels. When deeply stacked, you can't expect giant confrontations to occur. Giant confrontations are reserved for those occasions when monster hands confront one another. Even then, a highly skilled player on the losing end of the deal is usually able to control loses. To stack extremely good players in a deeply stacked setting, you need situations like A-A vs. K-K or top set versus middle set, and even then success isn't ensured. Instead of waiting to be on the good side of a cold deck, realize that success in deeply stacked no-limit hold 'em is about performing well in all the small- and medium-sized pots.
Thought No. 2: The Early Levels Matter. Forget that the blinds in early levels are meaningless. When mixing it up in the early rounds of tournaments, you're not just winning blinds. You're earning chips by engaging in skilled post-flop play against foes who are weaker, on average, than those you'll encounter later in the tournament. Winning a few smaller confrontations has the same effect as winning one larger one.
Thought No. 3: Don't Eschew +cEV Opportunities Thinking That Better Opportunities Will Come. I talk about this a lot in my latest book, Tournament Killer Poker by the Numbers. If you look at the results of today's top online tournament players and model their tournaments as a series of double-ups, you get that their average winning percentage per double-up is around 53 percent. Taking another approach to the preservation vs. accumulation debate, what good is it to lose half your stack to the blinds while waiting for that rare opportunity where you'll be all-in against a distribution that you're better than 70 percent to win against? You'd need to win that coveted opportunity 100% percent of the time for your expected stack to be the number of chips you started with!
Thought No. 4: Don't Force Opportunities That Aren't There. You can't sit around and wait for the nuts. However, recklessly splashing chips around is just as bad. If you have A-J, and an unknown opponent raises from early position, the time probably isn't right for your hand. Muck it. If you're short stacked, and contemplating open-shoving with 4-4 only to be preempted, you're not necessarily in the coin-flip situation that players like to imagine when justifying bad calls. Muck it. Take +cEV whenever you can get it; avoid everything else.
Tony Guerrera is the author of Killer Poker by the Numbers and Killer Poker Shorthanded (with John Vorhaus). Visit him online at www.killerev.com, and check out his weekly show, Killer Poker Analysis, on Rounder's Radio (www.roundersradio.com) Fridays from 5:00PM to 6:00PM Pacific Time.
