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Omaha Guru: A Reader's Question

Today I will take a break from counting the number of starting hands and answer a reader's question. Jeff writes:

"I would usually call with any A-2 or A-3 when the ace is suited, but it seems as though many of my opponents are calling with any suited ace. Is this good strategy?"

Jeff's inquiry dealt with pot-limit Omaha/8. Since my articles are based on fact and not opinion, I searched my database thoroughly for an answer.

There are 2,884 unique starting hands that contain a single ace, and 1,458 of them, or 50.6 percent, are profitable. In the long run a profitable hand will be in the black, even if it's only by a fraction of a penny. On the other end of the scale 1,426 of the starting hands are unprofitable, while only 1,282 will average a net win of a dollar or more. Clearly playing any hand containing an ace is not the way to go.

A search of my data base reveals that there are 2,520 starting hands that contain a suited ace. Only 1,376, or 54.6 percent of them, are profitable, and only 1,221, or 48.5 percent, show an average net win of a dollar or more. The data base is predicated on a simulated full-table, $10-$20 Omaha/8, with blinds of $5-$10, run on Wilson's Turbo Omaha/8, with predominantly tight player profiles.

If we were to eliminate every hand containing a bandit, we would be left with 1,053 starting hands. Of these 788, or 74.8 percent, would be profitable. Again we would be left with only 722 starting hands that show an average net win of a dollar or more. While it's clearly an improvement, it's not the way to go.

What if we were to look at the first two lowest cards in our hand? Let's begin with ace-bandit. By eliminating any ace-suited hand where the lowest two cards in your hand are A-9, you will get rid of 87 starting hands. This eliminates only eight profitable hands, all with average net wins of less than 70 cents. Not bad, so let's continue.

Carrying out the same process for the other two bandits produces similar results. Eliminating A-7 and A-8 deprives us of some profitable hands that show net wins over a dollar. There are five such hands for A-7 and eight for A-8. But it's still a wise move, due to the number of unprofitable starting hands that were also removed. This process leaves you with 2,118 starting hands, and 1,338 or 62.3 percent of them are profitable. The process can be summarized this way: Eliminate any ace-suited hand where your two lowest cards contain an ace and a bandit.

You can also carry this concept one rank further by eliminating any hand where your lowest two cards are A-6. This will also cause you to eliminate five profitable hands with a net win of a dollar or more. After this elimination is applied we will be left with 1,872 ace-suited starting hands, of which 1,326 or 70.8 percent are profitable. We may now expand upon our definition of ace-bandit by stating: Only play ace-suited starting hands where the second lowest card is a prime card, (deuce through five), or is greater than a nine.

If you also eliminate any starting hands containing a set, it removes eight more starting hands, leaving us with a total of 1,864 starting hands. Of these, 1,325, or 71.1 percent, are profitable. 1,205 will have average net wins of a dollar or more. Just eliminating the bandits gave us 74.8 percent!

We could go on and develop more elimination rules and really tweak the elimination process but then we would be rewriting my Starting Hands Rule book. There is one more compression we should look at though. The average net win for all the hands above which includes both single and double-suited aces is $4.74. If we were to concentrate on just the doubled-suited starting hand subset from the above, we would increase the average net win to $7.62. Double-suited is better than single suited.

The above analysis took into account all suited aces in all starting hands. There are 2,820 possible starting hands containing a suited ace if we do not restrict the hand in any other way. The average net win for all hands that contain a suited or double- suited ace is $4.65.

How many hands contain only an A-2 or A-3 where the aces are suited? In these calculations we would be taking into account starting hands like A-A-2-3 where one or both of the aces may be suited. We will also be counting hands like A-A-2-2 single- or double-suited as well as A-A-A-K if the king is suited to one of the aces. The database returned 1,161 starting hands meeting the criteria of containing at least one suited ace and a trey or a deuce. Of these, 1,074 are profitable-equivalent to 92.5 percent-and 1,046, or 90.1 percent, have an average net win of a dollar or more.

This is an excellent starting hand selection to raise or call a pre-flop raise with. It earns a whopping net win of $9.37! There are four sets within the group of starting hands. Two of them contain three aces. These are the only two that should be played. A suited ace with three deuces or threes is not worth the gamble.

Next time I will continue with counting the number of starting hands that are in a specific starting hand pattern.

So what have we learned? Playing, calling a raise or raising with any suited A-2 or A-3 in limit or pot-limit Omaha-8 is a good value play. I would of course use my starting hand book to learn which hands to eliminate.

Sam Mudaro, BA, MBA, is a practicing tax accountant and financial executive with 35 years of analytical business expertise. He uses simulation software to analyze and develop strategies for Omaha/8 and other forms of poker. Reach Sam at: realguru2003@yahoo.com.

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