Today I will take a break from developing an expert system to answer a reader's questions.
"Omaha Al" writes, "I tend to play more hands in the H/L ..." I assume Al is comparing Omaha H/L to Hold-Em.
There is a good reason why people tend to play more hands in a high/low game then in a straight high game.
First: There are usually two winners. If you feel your opponent is on a straight high hand, your qualified low may just sneak in for half the pot.
Second: There are only 1,326 2-card combinations which yield 169 possible unique starting hands in Hold-Em. 45 of those hands have a positive return when played from the button. That's 26.6%. There are over 277 thousand 2-card combinations in Omaha H/L or High which yield 11,995 possible unique starting hands. In Omaha H/L only 1,932 or 16.1% are profitable. That is about 10% less then Hold- Em.
Third: With so many combinations there are so many hands that look good. We all know that looks can be and are deceiving.
Al then ask "... what do you think are the best starting hands?" The best starting hands are those that have a positive expectation. The higher the net win is, the better the starting hand. Omaha is no different then any other form of poker in that any hand dealt to you may win the pot. A hand that wins more frequently then another is not necessarily better. Put another way; a higher win percentage does not equate to a higher net win. I am working on a starting hand guide that I will offer for sale to the general public. Keep reading this publication for future details.
Al states "Some people say don't play unless you have an Ace???" If you followed this concept you would be playing over 94% of the winning hands. This would be a good strategy for a beginning novice to follow. Not all hands containing an Ace are profitable however. Winning poker is more then just starting hands. Would you throw away every hand not containing an Ace from the small blind? How about the big blind! In Omaha H/L the Ace is indeed King, primarily due to its ability to act both as high card and low card. It is the only card capable of doing that.
Al then becomes more specific and wants to know if A4 or A5, whether suited or not, are playable starting hands. Well Al, the answer is "Yes" and "No". About 58% of the hands containing an A5 are profitable while about 64.6% of the starting hands containing A4 are profitable. A suited hand is always more profitable then the same hand nonsuited. With the Ace suited, the hand is more profitable then if just the five or four is suited. The other two cards obviously make a difference.
Al then asks "... what about hands like 9987". This hand is not profitable regardless of how it is suited. The double suited (DS) is more profitable then the non-suited (NS) version. This hand contains the three worse cards in the deck to hold, the 7, 8 and 9. It also illustrates that pairs and straight draws are not always profitable. Only a few pairs are indeed profitable.
Aces top the list by far followed by deuces, followed by kings. When looking to hit a straight with this hand your best hope is to flop a 4-5-6 giving you the nut straight with some protection if a 9 or 8 should fall.
Al further states "I tend to be looser when I am catching cards ..." There is nothing scientific or mathematical here. It is purely psychological.
The more hands we win in a row the more invincible we feel. The euphoria is further amplified when our opponents fold hands they would have called with, because they too feel we are on a hot streak. Their actions actually perpetuate the streak as there are fewer challengers for us to beat. The problem with streaks is we do not know when they will begin or when they will end until they are over. Streaks exist in the short run; in the long run probability will rule.
Al wants to know if he should "... stay away from danglers like KQJ2 suited or not??" The answer is, at least for this hand, a resounding "Yes". The chart to the left clearly shows every variety of this hand generates a net loss.
There are several problems with this hand. First, it has no low potential. If the flop brought an 8-5-T rainbow you may feel compelled to chase your straight draw. You may call and then the pot gets raised behind you. Would you now call a raise with a gut-shot straight draw, which may not be the best hand even if you get there? Second, if you connect and make your King high flush you may just lose to an Ace high flush. Consider this flop 2-5-6 or any flop containing three of your suite and three low cards not containing the Ace. When the pot gets raised and or reraised can you be sure your opponents just have lows? What if you flopped two of your suite and three low cards none of which are an Ace? Third, if you make a King high straight you may lose to the Ace high. A flop of Q-J-T can be quite costly.
Omaha H/L is a game of having or drawing to the nuts. Remember, in a ten handed game, 76.9 % of the cards have been dealt to the players. By the river 86.5% of the total cards in the deck have been exposed. If you don't have the nuts, chances are your opponent does!
So what have we learned? Aces are good; 7's, 8's and 9's are bad. Hands containing a single low card are bad starting hands. Draw if you must but draw to the nuts.
