Playing limit hold 'em in our local casino's poker room and holding 8h-7h on the button, I raised. Five players called. The dealer flopped 8s-7s-2d. They all checked to me. I bet; three players called. The dealer turned the Qd. I bet and two players called. The dealer turned the 3d. I bet; the remaining caller mucked his hand when I showed down my two pairs.
In the post mortem, the Big Blind said that he folded Ad-Kd after the flop. I asked why he folded with seven outs. He said he had trouble converting outs to odds. If that man, with a Ph.D. in nuclear science, had trouble converting outs to odds, then I imagined that some Poker Player Newspaper readers might also have some difficulties. So let's look at converting outs to odds.
An out is any card, including different suits, that improves your hand. One way to convert outs to odds is to multiply them by 2 percent, and then convert the decimal fraction to odds. For example, 7 outs times 2 percent is 0.14, which equals 1/7, which equals odds of 6-to-1 against improving on the turn. Since the post-flop pot offered my friend odds of about 12-to-1, he should have called to see the turn. The diamond on the turn would have given him 15 outs: 9 diamonds; 3 aces; and, 3 kings. 15 times 2 percent is 0.3, which equals 1/3.3, which equals odds of 2.3-to-1, an automatic call to see the last card.
Here's a much easier way to do those calculations. First, divide your outs into 48. Second, subtract 1. You should have plenty of time to do that even in the heat of battle. Your answer should be close enough to make a profitable decision.
For example, let's use my friend's seven outs. Divide 48 by 7: the answer is 7 (near enough). Subtract 1; the answer is 6. He had card odds of 6-to-1; the pot offered him 12-to-1, an easy post-flop call. We chose 48 for these reasons: it's close to the correct numbers of 47 and 46; and, it's much easier to divide 48 quickly in your head than either 47 or 46. The table shows how this simple method works for all possible outs.
Holding a pocket pair you have 2 outs and your odds against improving on the turn are 23-to-1. Holding an inside straight draw you have 4 outs: the odds against are 11-to-1. An open-ended straight draw has 8 outs. A flush draw, 9 outs, has odds against of 4-to-1. A flush and straight draw, 15 outs, has odds against of 2-to-1 against. Twenty- and 21-out hands are almost even money to improve. (Kd-Qd with Jf-Td-2d on the flop has 21 outs: 9 outs for the flush draw; 6 outs for the straight draw; 3 kings; and, 3 queens.)
Deciding to chase or not also requires estimating the pot odds. You can estimate the pot's size based on your experience. You can add up the amounts bet on each round. In potlimit games you may ask the dealer to count the pot for you. We'll examine this further in the next issue of Poker Player Newspaper.
Mr. Burke is the author of Flop: The Art of Winning at Low-Limit Hold 'Em, on sale at amazon & kokopellipress.com.
