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Part 157: Staying Grounded

Staying grounded and emotionally composed is a winning formula in poker but may well be easier said than done for some players. As we've all witnessed, some players have the propensity to run off the rails into tilt mode quite easily, while others are emotionally grounded and can remain stoic in the face of adversity.

A key element of excelling at poker is a keen understanding of the math involved. It is the underpinning of what constitutes a good bet or a bad one. Knowing the correct odds of various draws is an essential part of winning play, but it's more than that. In addition to helping you make informed decisions, a firm grasp of the odds can also keep you grounded.

Have you ever seen someone go off on an opponent who catches a two- or four-outer on the river? While it is certainly poor form to go off on anyone for almost anything, in this case it shows they don't really understand the odds. Sure, the winning player, having caught his two- or four-outer, may have been taking the worst of it to make his draw but let's take a look at how long those odds really were. The two outer was 11-to-1 from the flop to the river and 22-to-1 from the turn to the river, while the four outer was 5-to-1 from the flop to the river and 11-to-1 from the turn to the river.

Let's view this situation in its game context. A common four-outer is an inside straight draw. With only one card to come, the odds against completing it are exactly 10.5-to-1. I've seen layers that are not too grounded get upset when an opponent hits this draw and whine that they just experienced a bad beat. Mathematically the odds indicate that once out of every 11.5 times this event will occur. Guess the news... this is not some kind of bizarre event because opponents will often call you down with four-outers.

Actually if they are drawing without the correct pot odds, you are the beneficiary in the long run. These are the very players you should be pleased to be playing against. The point is this: If you become upset every time an opponent completes a hand with four outs, you will be spending way too much time being upset!

If you know the correct odds to different draws it will keep you grounded. You won't even flinch when what others may consider a long shot, you understand is something that will occur with relative frequency.

Even the dreaded two-outer will occur once out of every twenty three times, statistically. Let's take it one more step... even a one outer is only a 45-to-1 shot with one card to come. Those are certainly pretty long odds but they're nowhere near the "lottery range." We should all realize that opponents who chase these odds should be welcomed to the game instead of berated for their poor play.

Our goal for today's time together is to know the odds. That yields two positive results. First, knowing the odds is essential to making informed decisions and becoming a winning player. Second, it will keep you grounded and more emotionally stable. Let the less informed players waste energy bemoaning imagined bad beats because they don't truly understand the odds, while you save that energy for making better decisions.

See you next "TIME."

Tom "Time" Leonard has played poker in Atlantic City, Las Vegas, and California for more than 30 years and written about the game since 1994. Contact Tom at thleonard@msn.com.

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