Part 160: Predictability

Back in the day when I was a regular member of a dedicated group of players that got together every Friday night to play our cherished game, we all got to know each other’s moves pretty well. We would all laugh and immediately fold when Mr. Rock, who never stepped out of line, would come out swinging after the flop.
 
Who knows, maybe he was savvy enough to use his squeaky tight image to his advantage and steal a few pots here and there. But I don’t think so because I do not believe he realized that he was projecting an image. Well, that was back in the day, but the same can be said today of public cardroom regulars really knowing the other habitués. Who is working on their game and who isn’t?
 
Consider this… if you strive to observe your opponents’ playing habits and tendencies in order to make more informed decisions, don’t delude yourself that you’re the only one willing to put any effort into the game. If you accept this premise then you know that to become predictable is to become a losing player. If they can read you like a book they’ve read a thousand times, you are, to put it bluntly, dead meat on a hook. The key is to never underestimate how perceptive your opponents may be.
 
As we attempt to improve our play we must analyze if we have become predictable. It is a very easy rut to fall into in the guise of playing strong, solid poker. If we always do the same thing in similar circumstances, we can easily become predictable. Do you always raise before the flop with A-K?
 
Do you always fold to a continuation bet post flop if you haven’t improved? There are many actions that players deem correct and never deviate from. Never deviating equates to predictability, and predictability equates to losing poker.
 
If, after an analysis of your predictability quotient, you find that you are as easy to read as a dime novel then the good news is—the fix is very easy. You just need to start mixing it up a little. It’s what you should have been doing all along, but better late than never. Start viewing A-K as what it really is once in a while… a drawing hand. Just call with it and suppress your normal instinct to raise.
 
Do you ever slow play, semi-bluff, bluff, or raise a lone continuation bet with junk just to induce a fold? You absolutely must mix up your game to keep your opponents guessing. You want them to be guessing, not feeling certain that they know what your action represents.
 
I know there are many players who do play in this manner and I can spot them fairly quickly. In fact, if I spot too many of them at my table, I begin to look for a table change.
 
Here’s a challenge for those who aren’t quite sure if they are mixing up their play. During your next session, take note of how many times you play hands differently from the conventional wisdom due to circumstances such as position, key knowledge regarding an opponent, or some other situational reason. If your result is zero you need to start seeking opportunities to mix up your game so as to be less predictable.
 
Generally speaking, guessers are losers in poker. Our goal for today is simple … try to make your opponents be the guessers. The less predictable you are the better off your bottom line will look at the end of your sessions.
 
See you next “TIME.”
 
Tom “Time” Leonard has played poker in Atlantic City, Las Vegas, and California for more than 30 years and written about the game since 1994. Contact Tom at thleonard@msn.com.