One of my favorite sayings is that people act based on their perception of reality, not reality itself. Most poker players who have played the game for any length of time realize the veracity of this statement. After all, it's what makes a bluff possible.
Consider a hand where you raised from under-the-gun before the flop and get two callers. The flop is king-high and you bet out; getting only one caller. The turn is a blank and you bet out again. Your opponent raises and you re-raise all-in. You're representing massive strength-perhaps a set of kings, or an over-pair in a game that's not that deep.
Of course, this works in reverse, too. An extremely loose, aggressive player raises under the gun. We perceive that means he holds two cards, and our calling range against him is quite different from a typical, more conservative player raising from that position. Here, we might call with J-Ts while we'd quickly muck that hand against other players.
So let's examine how we can bluff better. First, our betting must appear normal for the situation. If our opponents will never believe our betting in the situation-either because it's completely out of character or they're calling stations who will never fold-then a bluff can't be right. Let's look at an example.
It was the middle stage of a no-limit hold 'em tournament, and Aaron had $20,000, a well above average stack. He was in the big blind, which were $125-$250, and it was folded to Matt on the button. Matt raised to $750. After the small blind folded, Aaron looked down at 7d-6d and called. Matt had about the same size stack as Aaron.
I asked Aaron why he made the call. He told me that Matt was deep enough that he wasn't committed to the hand. Most flops miss both players, and if the flop was low Aaron could represent whatever flopped. Also, it was always possible that Aaron could hit the flop with his suited connectors. Finally, Aaron and Matt had played together before. Aaron believed that his image in Matt's mind was a tight, solid player.
The flop was 8h-3s-2c, missing Aaron completely. Aaron checked and Matt made a continuation bet of $775, just under half the pot. Aaron called. The turn was the 2d. Again, Aaron checked. Matt fired again at the pot, betting $1,025. Aaron again just called.
The river was the 5s. Aaron now led out for $1,750. Matt thought for almost a minute, said, "Nice hand," and folded.
Matt told me that he believed Aaron flopped a set of threes. After all, he had seen Aaron play a small set the same way a month earlier. That play had stuck in Matt's mind, and he perceived the false reality that Aaron wanted Matt to perceive.
It's important to note that Aaron's play was successful because Matt is a thinking player. Against a calling station or a player who only considers his own cards Matt's bluff would stand no chance of working. Getting a non-thinking player to react to your actions is next to impossible. When you talk to a brick wall, the bricks won't respond-today, tomorrow, or ever. A solid player who doesn't sprinkle some bluffs into his game is missing opportunities to maximize his winnings.
Russell Fox is the co-author of "Mastering No-Limit Hold'em," "Why You Lose at Poker," and "Winning Strategies for No-Limit Hold'em." He's a federally licensed tax preparer specializing in gambling, with a blog at taxabletalk.com. E-mail Russ at rcfox@claytontax.com
