Post flop play entails analyzing many variables. Some are mathematically quantifiable while others are subjective and defy quantitative analysis. How does one measure whether someone is bluffing? What do they think we have? While we may calculate our card odds, pot odds and maybe even the probability of winning based on imperfect information, most of us just settle for calculating outs.

This series of articles takes a look at how specific starting hands perform against a given flop or flop type. As an example consider the best starting hand, A-A-2-3 double suited. We all know this hand has an average net win of $44.06 from all starting positions in a tight game when played by a tight player at a full table. But how does it hold up when the flop does not contain a single low card? What if the flop contained three suited cards that do not match your holdings?

I will conduct this analysis by dealing our tight player a specific starting hand one million times and examine and present the results to you. Before we start, let me dispel another myth of Omaha/8. The best first two cards you may be dealt are not suited. It is a pair of aces. In a series of simulations run 10,000,000 times A-A averages a net win of $2.68 while A-2 suited only averages $2.35. Paired aces are 14 percent more profitable. So why do I still hear, "This is Omaha, not hold 'em; why are you betting two aces?"

Let us begin by taking a look at how A-A-2-3 stands up against random flops.

A-A-2-3 boasts an average net win of $38.14. The unsuited version averages $33.47. You will win with any of these starting hands more than sixty percent of the time. I am often asked, "Should you raise with this starting hand?" I firmly believe you should, and that you will earn more by fast playing before the flop then you will by slow playing. By playing the hand fast you may drive out marginal lows and marginal high hands. This is another situation which I may set up a simulation to analyze.

The first simulation utilizes a starting hand of A-A-2-3 double suited against varying flops that do not contain a low card. There are only five cards of each suit that may comprise a flop without a single low card. Those cards may combine to form 1,140 different flops, but I will not bore you with every one of them.

Let's look at a few facts. Given a flop of three high cards our hand cannot possibly form a straight. Unless we flop quads there will always be a straight or straight draw for someone holding two unpaired high cards that don't pair the board. If the flop does not contain two cards of the same suit we will always flop one card that matches one of our suited cards. The best possible hand we can form is quads, followed by aces full.

In the first case the flop is suited, but not to your holdings. There is also a straight and straight flush draw. You definitely do not want to contribute any money to this pot beyond the flop. Just think about how you may get stuck if the turn brought the ace of spades. This hand will win 15.7 percent of the time given this flop but will cost you $16.16 on average.

Replacing the nine of spades with the nine of hearts increases your win percentage by an amazing 13.2 percent. It also increases your average loss from $16.16 to $20.24! Again you would not want to contribute to this pot post flop. Note by cutting the possibility of the spade flush you actually lose more.

Placing a single card of your suit on the flop or one of each of your suits does not help much. When you are fortunate to hit two cards suited to one of your aces and a single card suited to the second hand you will have a starting hand that wins over 60 percent and return over $39 on average.

When the flop is three of the same suit and suited to one of your aces you want to raise and re-raise as you are looking at a 90 percent winner averaging $76.15. You want to raise to both get more money in the pot as well as make the straight flush draws pay and eliminate those looking to complete a full house.

So what have we learned? A-A-2-3 double suited may be the best starting hand but there are flops that will render it virtually worthless!

Lastly, here are some more terms from my poker glossary:

Four Flush-A hand consisting of four cards of the same suit.

Fourth Street-The fourth card dealt you in stud games or the turn card in hold 'em or flop games.

Freak-Slang for a wild card.

Free Card-A betting round in which no one bet thereby allowing all players to see the next card without having to put money into the pot.

Free Ride-Another name for a free card.

Freeroll-Most commonly used to define a tournament where entry is based on a condition other then paying an entry fee.

Sam Mudaro, BA, MBA, is a practicing tax accountant and financial executive with 35 years of analytical business expertise. He uses simulation software to analyze and develop strategies for Omaha/8 and other forms of poker. Reach Sam at: realguru2003@yahoo.com.