When might it make sense for you to quit your job and play poker full time for a living? I'm asked that from time to time by players who have won some money and think that they might be ready make the switch from playing poker as a hobby to playing poker for a living.
I'll share with you a typical example of that, from someone I met at Foxwoods who was thinking of quitting his day job. I've found it's typical of many who ask me about turning pro.
Carlos comes down to Foxwoods on the weekends and on holidays. He estimates that he makes about $40 an hour playing $10-$20 and $20-$40 hold 'em. He's started to mix in some $2-$5 no limit and estimates that he earns that $40 an hour in that game as well. He's already accumulated $10,000 in winnings in the last fifteen weeks, playing 15 or so hours a week. He figures that if he played full time, he could easily earn more than the $50,000 he makes at his current job. He adds that it would be worth even more than that since he wouldn't have to pay taxes on it.
He wants to know if he's ready to quit his day job. I told him "no" and gave him the five reasons that most players who think they're ready, really aren't.
Reason 1: Shoddy Records. Most players aren't precise enough and tend to inflate success by discounting what they see as atypical sessions-those when they lose badly. Such is the case here, where the records for $10-$20, $20-$40, and $2-$5 no-limit are mixed together and "estimated." How many big bets an hour does he earn playing $20-$40? He doesn't know.
Reason 2: Too small a sample. It takes about 500 hours to really know whether one is beating the game or just benefiting from short-term good luck. This player has fewer than 250 hours. It's not enough time; and it's not clearly divided among the different games. Play 500 hours in one specific game, keep solid records, and then see how you're doing per hour.
Reason 3: Cherry Picking. He's playing only on weekends, nights, and holidays-when the games are most likely to be profitable. His win rate will almost surely go down when there are fewer tourists, fewer drinking players, and a higher concentration of rocks, regulars, pros, and semi-pros. Earning two big bets an hour when the going is good is much easier than earning two big bets an hour forty hours a week, week in and week out.
Reason 4: Work is Harder Than Play. Playing for food and rent adds pressure. That added pressure may make it much tougher for Carlos to play his best game all the time-since the money won and lost at the table will be much more important to his day-to-day life. If he has to win to pay the rent he may not be willing or able to take the risks necessary for optimal play.
Reason 5: Not Enough Bankroll. When Carols quits his job, his sole source of income will be his winnings. His bankroll will be like the tools of a tradesman and must be protected at all costs. Pros estimate that they need a bankroll 200-300 big bets to play safely-and those are seasoned and proven professionals. That means $10,000 would be just barely enough for a playing bankroll. What about living expenses? Carlos should have enough money to support himself for six months while he starts his playing career. He'll need it so he doesn't burn through his valuable bankroll. Living frugally, without a car, loans to pay off, child support, alimony, or major credit card bills, that's going to take at least $15,000-about $2,500 a month-for six months. Carlos needs at least $25,000: $10,000 as a playing bankroll plus another $15,000 for rent or mortgage, health insurance, food, utilities, clothes, etc. from the same $10,000. Without it he's burning the candle at both ends and is setting himself up to go bust.
Of course there are exceptions. But for most players there is a better way than quitting your day job and becoming a full-time pro. I'll cover that in my next article.
Ashley Adams is the author of Winning 7-Card Stud and Winning No Limit Low Limit Hold'em. He hosts the radio show House of Cards, broadcast Mondays at 5 - 6 p.m. in Boston, MA, on 1510 AM, and on the Internet at www.houseofcardsradio.com. Contact Ashley at asha34@aol.com.
