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Raise 'n' Chase: Part 6

The table shows the "Rake Effect" at structured, limit hold 'em games where the limits double on the turn, i.e., the pattern, B-B-2B-2B. The table derives from a raise before the flop and one bet after the flop.

You will recall our previous columns where we raised pre-flop in late position with a modest hand, for example, 6d-5d. After the flop, either someone bet or they all checked to us and we bet. In that event the pot would contain three bets from each of the remaining players, plus dead money left by the blinds and by players who folded after seeing the flop, minus the drop.

These days the drop usually costs the players $5: $4 for the rake and $1 for the bad-beat drop. Thus, the pot contains at least three small bets times each active player minus the $5 drop.

We know that winning chasers have pot odds larger than their cards odds. We also know the cards odds for the turn card. We combine all that into this formula,

#Opponents > (47/(#Outs) + Drop/B)/3-1

By #Opponents we mean active opponents who put in three bets. If an opponents acts after you and might not put in that third bet, then she doesn't count. Also, because you can't depend on dead money, we don't include it in the formula.

After the flop 47 unknown cards remain which we divide by the number of your outs. We divide the drop by the amount of the smaller bet, B, so for a $2-$4 hold 'em game, the drop divided by B equals 2.5. For a $20-$40, it equals 0.25. We divide the whole shebang by three and then subtract one to arrive at the number of active opponents you need for you to pay to see the turn.

We deliberately left out any consideration of "implied odds." Those extra bets that you might win on the turn and river when you make your hand, plus any dead money, offset all the times you make your hand and still lose to a better one.

The table (not shown) shows the number of outs you need to pay to see the turn card depending on the number of opponents you can count on also paying to see the turn card. You have four opponents and only three outs? Then don't pay to see the turn!

We solved the equation for several commonly played limits as shown. At limits of $20-$40 and higher the numbers don't change.

Notice the "Rake Effect." At $2-$4 limits with only one opponent, you need 14 outs to pay to see the turn card. At $20-$40 and higher stakes with only one opponent, you need nine outs to pay to see the turn card.

In summary, with one raise before the flop and one bet after the flop, depending on the stakes at which you play and the number of your opponents, you need the number of clean outs as shown to chase profitably by paying to see the turn card.

What about paying for the river card, you ask? The answer to that awaits a subsequent column. For now, using this table should keep you from chasing rainbows past the flop.

Mr. Burke is the author of Flop: The Art of Winning at Low-Limit Hold 'Em, on sale at amazon.com & kokopellipress.com. E-mail your Hold 'Em questions to richardburke@comcast.net

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