Fred cornered me when I signed up for a few games. He understood the principle behind raisin' and chasin' with modest hands: By raising before the flop you make the pot odds high enough to see the turn card and the river card with remarkably few outs, thus pricing yourself into the hand.
He also understood that if the pot odds for you exceed the cards odds against you, then chasing shows a profit in the long run. He appreciated the charts in Parts 6 and 7 of this series because he could count active opponents better than he could accurately track pot sizes.
Fred wondered why we didn't count the bets lost when the flop missed us completely. "You wrote that with suited connectors you hit a piece of the flop about half the time. That means about half the time your pre-flop raise costs you two small bets. Where do you account for those lost bets in all your fancy equations?" he asked.
"We don't account for those bets in deciding whether or not to chase. We make up for those forgone bets by getting more action when we raise with our premium hands," I explained. "Suppose you played only ace-king and pocket aces, kings, and queens. You figure to have a playable hand once in 39 deals on the average. If you play only those hands, then how much action do you expect from your opponents? Except for any clueless ones, not much, right? You raise, and by knowing that you raise only with premium hands, your opponents promptly fold.
"Now add 36 more hands, the suited connectors from 5d-4d to Kh-Qh, to your starting hand criteria. When you raise pre-flop in late position with any one of 70 hands, your opponents have no idea whether you have 5d-4d or Ad-Ah, and they pay to see the flop more often. You make up for those lost bets with more calls from your opponents when you hold a premium hand. 'You have to give action to get action,' Doyle Brunson wrote in Super System 2."
Fred nodded that he understood. He just didn't see how more "action" balanced out all those bets you lose when the flop misses you. Was I sure about that?
"Absolutely," I answered. "Whenever you raise you want your opponents to lament, 'I just can't put him on a hand.' Adding suited connectors to your list of raising hands in late position adds not only to their confusion but also to your pocketbook."
"What about suited, one-gap connectors, from 5d-3d to Ah-Qh," Fred asked. "Those add another 40 hands and that ought to confuse 'em even more. Pocket pairs from 2-2 to J-J add 60 more hands. Where do I stop?"
"Whoa! Remember that you want either a superior hand or four or more outs when you catch a piece of the flop. Pairs usually have only two outs post-flop. With only two outs you need pot odds of 22-to-1 to pay to improve on the turn, (eight or more active opponents according to the chart in Part 6). With small pairs the raisin' part works, the chasin' part usually doesn't.
"Raising with medium pocket pairs and those suited, one-gap connectors might work for you. If you decide to experiment with them, then track your results to see how well they work."
"How sure are you that I'll have four or more outs post-flop about half the time when I raise with suited connectors," Fred asked.
Look for the answer to that question in a later issue of Poker Player Newspaper.
Mr. Burke is the author of Flop: The Art of Winning at Low-Limit Hold 'Em, on sale at amazon.com & kokopellipress.com. E-mail your Hold 'Em questions to richardburke@comcast.net.