When I got to my local cardroom it was clear that the $5-$5 blinds $300-$500 buy-in no-limit game had gone all night. At least five of the players' eyes and facial expressions showed that they had been in the game for hours. It was 9:30 a.m., and that might offer me an advantage-I was wide awake.
After waiting a few minutes, one of the bleary eyed got up and I took his seat. It didn't take long for an interesting hand to develop. An early position player limped. The action was folded around to Scott in the hijack seat (two to the right of the button). He raised to $30. Scott had just sat down in the game too, and I knew him to be a tight, conservative player. Rob, next to act in the cutoff seat, raised to $130. I was in the big blind and folded, and the small blind folded too. The limper folded and Scott called the raise.
The flop was [Ad][8c][3s]. Scott checked and Rob immediately moved all-in. Scott appeared to start the hand with $500 while Rob had about $800. Scott took perhaps a nanosecond to call and flipped over AsAa. Rob sheepishly turned over his [Kc][Kh].
Rob needed a miracle but he didn't come close to getting it. Indeed, the turn was the [Ac] and Scott looked quite happy.
I could ask what Rob was thinking on this hand. The immediate re-raise makes sense; after all, it's possible-though unlikely-that Scott was stealing. I don't think he needed to raise to $130 though; a raise to $100 would get the same information. When Scott called, Rob should have realized that he was facing a real hand.
The flop was anything but beautiful for Rob. Rob should put Scott on a range of hands. Tentatively, I put Scott on A-K, A-Qs, A-A, K-K, or Q-Q. There are six ways you can be dealt any pair, and sixteen ways you can be dealt any two-card combination. Eliminating the two kings from the deck that Rob holds, there are eight A-K combinations, four A-Qs, six A-A, one K-K, and six Q-Q that Scott could hold. That's 18 possible hands that beat Rob, one that ties him, and six that he's ahead of. If you also included J-J as a possible hand for Scott, then Rob would be ahead of twelve of Scott's possible holdings. No matter how you do the math, it's likely that Rob is behind.
Rob should have processed all this information. Rob could have bet half the pot-$135-as an information bet. If Scott had K-K or Q-Q, the ace on the flop would have likely scared him and he would have probably folded. On the other hand, if Scott checkraised, Rob would have an easy fold. Another option for Rob would have been to just check the flop. After all, Scott probably was ahead of him.
I think you would agree that moving all-in here was not a good decision. I should have mentioned that Rob was one of the bleary eyed-there were bags under his reddened eyes. I doubt he thought through his decision. He saw K-K and knew that only one hand beat him and decided he'd play his kings like they were the nuts. They weren't and he paid the price. Rob did make one very smart move: He immediately got up from the game. He realized that playing poker while being dead tired was a losing move.
Scott's glad that he didn't realize that ten minutes earlier.
