My friend Brian called me yesterday complaining about his bad luck. He had been playing some super-satellites at his local cardroom, trying to win an entry into the cardroom's big tournament in a couple of weeks. Based on the prize pool, five players would receive tournament entries; the sixth place finisher would receive just $100.
Only six players were left in the super-satellite, and the blinds were high at T1,000-T2,000 with a T200 ante. Brian had T32,000 and was in the cutoff seat. It was folded around to him and he looked down at Kd-Kh. He raised to T6,000. Phil, in the small blind, moved all-in for a total of T15,000. Brian called, of course, but found himself facing the only hand he didn't want to see: Ac-Ah. Unfortunately for Brian he didn't get lucky and now he was the short stack.
Less than an orbit later Brian was in the small blind with T16,000 and looked down at Kh-9d. He moved all-in and was called by Al in the big blind, who had T28,000. Al turned over Ac-Ah and once again, Brian failed to get lucky. The other five players celebrated while Brian exited the cardroom empty handed.
Brian and I reviewed the two hands. I told him that it's very unlucky to run into aces back-to-back, and I thought he played the second hand just fine.
After I let that thought hang on the phone Brian asked me, "Didn't I play the first hand ok?" I had Brian again tell me the chip stacks of the other players-Brian, with T32,000, was the big stack, although there were two others with about T29,000, one with T23,000, one with T20,000, and Phil with T15,000.
I asked Brian what his goal in the super-satellite was. "To win it, of course," he responded. I asked him what that meant and I could tell he was puzzled.
"Brian," I told him, "Coming in fifth is the same as coming in first. If possible you want the other players knocking each other out. Given your stack size you had enough chips for seven orbits without playing a hand. Everyone else had fewer chips. There were two short stacks that would soon have to play something.
"Sure, you got unlucky that you ran into aces, but you were at a point where you probably didn't want to play a hand. And if, for some reason, you decided that you had to play your kings you want to make the smallest possible raise. Your goal is to come in fifth not to win the entire tournament."
"But he could have had ace-king and called me," he replied.
"Yes, he could have had that hand but he didn't. Even then there was a chance he could have out-flopped you. I'm not arguing about your luck-it was definitely bad here-but you should have folded. At least for the next orbit, and possibly next two, you forgot your goal. Even if you had been dealt aces you should have folded."
"Then," Brian asked, "Al should have folded when I moved all-in on the second hand, right?"
"Absolutely," I responded. "Al should have played the tournament situation and let you steal. Al took a risk, albeit a low risk, and it wasn't necessary. He should have let the short stacks battle."
I found out the next day that Brian did learn from this. Tonight he called me to tell me he had won his seat into the championship in this evening's super-satellite.
Russell Fox is the co-author of "Mastering No-Limit Hold 'em," "Why You Lose at Poker," and "Winning Strategies for No-Limit Hold'em." He's a federally licensed tax preparer specializing in gambling, with a blog at taxabletalk.com. E-mail Russ at rcfox@claytontax.com
