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Sam Mudaro Is... The Omaha Guru

You are sitting in your favorite Omaha/8 game and raised the pot before the flop with Ac-Ad-2c-3d in your hand. You have four callers and your starting hand has the highest win rate of all starting hands, 64 percent with an average net win of $44.06. The dealer delivers the flop and you see an awful 2-9-T. Should you play on, trying for runner-runner low? The answer depends on how the flop is suited. This chart (not shown) shows the results based on how the flop is suited.

Chasing for runner-runner low is unproductive as evidenced by the net loss when the flop is suited but not to your holdings. If there is any action after the flop, your pocket aces are probably beaten. Most low callers will probably fold, creating a smaller pot that reduces your pot odds. Your average net loss will be $7.57, a negative swing of $51.63 from the average. There is no reason to continue unless everyone checks and you are in the big blind. Remember, a king or queen high flush draw may check but raise if you bet, to ascertain where they stand.

Changing the suit of just one card on the previous flop to that of another suit, even though it is still not one of yours, is enough to turn a profit of $4.28. This allows more callers to see the turn, since there may not be a flush at this point. If a low card of six or higher hits on the turn, the nut low draws will call, bet, or raise if they have the nut low and nut flush draw.

Changing the flop to rainbow, which dictates that one card will be of your suit, increases the win nearly five fold, (4.86 for you technical folks). You now have as much chance of hitting a runner-runner flush as anyone else. The fact that there is no flush draw increases the value of your pocket aces.

Your net win increases by $6.39, or 31.8 percent when the same flop contains one card matching each of your suits. Although I am not advocating playing for runner, runner flush, when it does happen you will have the nut flush. What you have is protection against someone else beating you with a backdoor flush. Given the texture of the flop, most everyone has a drawing hand with the best hand possible being a set.

If you are fortunate enough to flop two of your suit you are in great shape. You have actually improved your chances of winning over the basic starting hand in terms of both win percentage and average net win. You now have a hand with excellent scoop potential.

Remember, you cannot flop three of your suit and also flop a pair.

Does it make a difference which of our cards we pair? Obviously if we flopped an ace we would have a set. Instead of an ace let's look at pairing our trey.

There is very little difference between pairing the deuce or trey. When holding the best starting hand, pairing either non ace has little effect. Both the win percentages and net win dollar amounts mirror each other. Pairing the trey does increase your net win slightly, but the net loss also increases when the flop is suited and not to one of your suits.

The next chart displays results when the flop contains an ace.

When flopping a set of aces instead of pairing either our deuce or trey there is a great improvement. A set of aces opens the door to a full house if the board pairs. Because a full house allows us to turn a profit even when the flop is all spades, however often we hit the full house, we win more than 76 percent of the time.

It takes two low wins to count as a full win at best, because the high will always win half the pot. When we win the high and there is no low, it is counted as a full win. Regardless of how often we beat a made flush the size of the pots won are almost guaranteed to be large, especially when it is the river that pairs the board or give us quads.

Someone holding the king-high flush is not going to give up if the turn is a low card or a card allowing a straight to be completed even when the river pairs the board. If first to act they may even bet out assuming there is a busted nut low or a straight. Once raised, they may fold or simply call out of disgust.

Next time I will examine what happens when we replace the nine in the above flops with an eight, giving us two cards to a low.

So what have we learned? When holding the best starting hand in Omaha/8 we would like to see at least one of our suits or an ace hit the flop. If we flop an ace we have an excellent raising hand with a win rate higher than 70 percent.

Sam Mudaro, BA, MBA, is a practicing tax accountant and financial executive with 35 years of analytical business expertise. He uses simulation software to analyze and develop strategies for Omaha/8 and other forms of poker. Reach Sam at: realguru2003@yahoo.com.

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