A few days ago I watched my friend Brian play a very short no-limit session. He bought in for the maximum in a brand new nine-handed game with $5-$5 blinds and a $300 to $500 buy-in range. On the fourth hand Brian was dealt 8c-8s on the button.
Two players limped, and Brian elected to limp too. After Ed checked from the small blind, Rob, the big blind, raised another $30. The two limpers in front of Brian called, but Brian folded. The flop was 8d-6d-3h. Ed bet $60 into the $120 pot. Rob immediately raised to $150. The other limpers folded. Ed quickly moved all-in for another $100, and Rob just as quickly called. I thought to myself, "Ed probably has a set of sixes and Rob an over-pair, Qs-Qh."
Should Brian have called the $30 raise? There was $115 in the pot so he didn't have the correct price based on pot odds, which are about 7.5-to-1 against flopping a set. Yet there's a factor that Brian missed at the time-implied pot odds. It's almost certain that there will be additional betting in this multi-way pot, and it's implied that Brian has the correct odds based on the amount of money that figures to be added to the pot. Additionally, Brian will likely not put any money into the pot unless he flops a set or better. Since he has the button and position there's also a small chance for a bluffing opportunity to raise.
Should one always call a raise with a small pair? Of course not-it depends on the price. Suppose Rob had raised to $125 instead of $30 and both limpers had folded. Brian notes that Ed is counting out chips to make the call, so we can assume that Brian would have to call $115 for a $255 pot. Note that Ed started the hand with $280 and Rob began with $480.
There's a rule that covers this situation promulgated by Bob Ciaffone in his Pot-Limit & No-Limit Poker. He said that if you are facing a raise and the call is less than 5 percent of the effective stack size, you should call but if it's more than 10 percent you should fold (the other situations are judgment calls). Of course, like all rules there are situations where it doesn't apply, but it's a good rule of thumb to remember. Thus, in the situation where Brian would be facing a $115 raise he should fold.
I asked Brian why he didn't make the call. He told me that he just didn't think through the situation. "I had been running real bad, and I hadn't flopped a set in who knows how long," he said. "About fifteen seconds after I folded I knew I'd blundered, but it was too late to do anything about it. Of course I would have won a huge pot, and I have only myself to blame."
Brian continued, "I played a couple more hands, and realized that I was playing scared. And playing scared no-limit poker is akin to handing you money to your opponents. So I got up and headed home for the day."
On that last point Brian is correct, though I think you can't play any kind of poker with scared money. His decision to head home after just fifteen minutes was his best of the day.
Russell Fox is the co-author of "Mastering No-Limit Hold'em," "Why You Lose at Poker," and "Winning Strategies for No-Limit Hold'em." He's a federally licensed tax preparer specializing in gambling, with a blog at taxabletalk.com. E-mail Russ at rcfox@claytontax.com
