Annual predictions are every writer's stock-in-trade, and my look at 2009 is all about the future of your local poker game, and mine too.
Most successful players don't win because of their own innate genius at this game; they win because of their opponents' stupidity. Some opponents give money away by making a continuous run of loose calls with hands they should have folded and by exhibiting a penchant for looking us up time and time again on the river. Why? Maybe they sleep better knowing that no one ever bluffs them in a poker game.
It's the sum of all these additional calls that should not have been made, minus the occasions they get lucky by making a really bad call and drawing out to put a bad beat on us, plus the unwarranted river lookups, minus the occasional times we are actually caught bluffing that really contributes to our bottom line. That's loose money, and loose money is our profit.
But there's a lot less loose money floating around in this economy, and fewer people seem willing to gamble, and games in 2009 figure to be played a lot closer to the vest, at least until the economy turns around to the point where recreational players have a sense of security about their income stream and a willingness to risk some of it at the poker table.
We already saw this phenomenon happen in online poker. Prior to the enactment of UIGEA, it was as easy to reload one's account as a mouse click or two that sent funds from a credit card to your online poker room of choice-and there were scads of loose players online, most of whom contributed to the well being of better players who didn't have to do much more than play straightforward, A-B-C poker to show a nice earn at the end of each month.
But UIGEA created hurdles that made it more difficult for casual, recreational players to fund their losses and keep a steady stream of money in their online account. The result was a slow but steady disappearance of players who lost regularly, but mentally wrote it off as a casual, convenient form of relatively inexpensive entertainment. When contributors began leaving, games got tougher. Some players still won, but they did so because they continued to upgrade their skills and kept abreast with the always changing style and tactics found of online games.
Those formerly winning players who did not adapt were no longer winners, and became contributors in the process-unable to wrap their minds around a game that was changing even as they played it. It all brings to mind that old Bob Dylan line, "You know something's happening, but you don't know what it is, do you. Mr. Jones?"
If you want to succeed in 2009, you have to resolve to move your game forward. And when you make this New Year's resolution, just swallow hard and accept the fact that as well as you play in the coming year, you might not win as much as you did before all the loose money dried up and disappeared.
But if you don't dedicate a lot of time, energy, and study time to sharpening the saw in 2009, you might find yourself referred to in that most desultory of terms-a contributor. With the economy as bad as it is, 2009 looks like a time for lots of traction and not much speed at the poker table. So here's my advice, and it's simple. Keep your head above water. Show up and play. Study and grow your game. And when the tide finally turns and your game is once again filled with loose money and players who came to gamble, you can just sit back, take it easy-and take it.
Visit Lou Krieger online and check out all his books at www.loukrieger.com. You can read his blog at http://loukrieger.blogspot.com and write directly to him at loukrieger@aol.com.
