I penned several columns some time ago describing my use of "Poker Posers" in coaching players who are aspiring to improved performance. A poker poser is simply a scenario that puts the student in a situation and then asks the question " what do you do now, and why would you do it?
My favorite student, whose internet moniker is "Markers," seemed to fall prey to a fear that he was always up against the nuts. This fear has been dubbed The Sniper Syndrome. Some players just seem to get in their head that there is a sniper behind every tree holding the Brazils. Yes, snipers are indeed out there but not behind every single tree. This fear made Markers tentative when he should have been aggressive, or at the very least bold. The result was that he would tend to slow play when he should have been value betting, or he'd fold when he should have raised or called. Let me share the poser that became a breakthrough for Markers.
The scenario I put together had Markers sitting in the cutoff seat holding a suited A-Q. Three players limped in and Markers made it two bets. Everyone behind him called and the hand had seven players with a flop of Q-Q-4 with the four matching his suit.
Both of the blinds checked and the original limper bet. The next two players folded and Markers raised with his trip queens.
His raise makes everyone fold around to the original raiser who re-raised. Markers now finds himself heads-up with the action awaiting his response. The question is posed, "What do you do, and why?" Markers' response focused on only two hands his opponent could be holding, either A-Q or pocket fours.
One would result in a chop and the other would reduce his chances of success to hitting the case queen or having another pair appear without a four. Neither of these hands made very much sense to me based upon the situation, previous action and mathematical analysis.
In my response to Markers I indicated he tended to always imagine the worst case scenario, which often was unlikely, and it tended to make him freeze up. The Sniper Syndrome. I believed that the best play would be to smooth-call so you would not send a signal to your opponent to shut down, which would cause him to check on the turn. You would prefer to keep him emboldened so he will lead out on the turn and you can pounce when the betting amount doubles.
What convinced Markers that he was a victim of tunnel vision was that he only put his opponent on two hands in his analysis when he most likely held a weaker queen. This meant that the only hand he had to fear was the very unlikely holding of pocket fours and that his opponent probably held one of 15 to 19 hands, including the 3 possible chop hands, with a weaker queen. It was the mathematical analysis that became his epiphany to putting his opponent on a likely range of hands.
If you find yourself playing tentatively and fear the worst because of the Sniper Syndrome, then base today's goal on using a mathematical approach to put your opponent on a range of possible hands. If done realistically it will open your eyes that the more likely holdings far out number the worst case scenario. This doesn't mean you should never exercise caution, but many times fearing a sniper behind every tree will cause you to miss key bets which could become the difference between winning and losing.
See you next "TIME."
