As the name indicates, reverse implied odds are the opposite of implied odds. While implied odds push your true pot odds one step forward, reverse implied odds pull them one step backward. In either case, the pot odds are not quite as they first appear, because future betting rounds must be taken into account.
With implied odds, pot odds are actually more inflated than they seem, because future betting rounds are likely to help you. A classic example would be if you're on a draw and it figures to be paid off generously on future rounds if it hits. But with reverse implied odds, the true pot odds shrivel up, because future betting rounds are liable to cost you.
Reverse implied odds generally apply to already made hands. A common example is top pair with a lousy kicker. Say you have Kc-7c in the big blind, two players limp, the small blind completes, you check your option, and the four of you watch the flop come down Kd-9s-8s. Your pair of kings may very well be in front right now. But with three opponents and a community board that supports both flush and straight draws, your kings are in a precarious position.
Much depends on the style and caliber of your opponents of course, but in all but the loosest of games a flop bet with top-pair-no-kicker will only find calls from better hands, or draws to a better hand. Any worse hands out against you will likely hit the muck, if not on the flop then on the next betting round-unless the hand improves.
To make matters worse, future cards are more likely to help your opponents. In the above example, hitting a seven to make two pair could easily complete an opponent's straight, so those outs are severely tainted. Because the king of spades could complete a flush, the king of hearts is your only good, clean out. But if one of your opponents holds another king with a superior kicker, then spiking the case king will only end up hurting you.
And that's what's so dangerous about reverse implied odds: you only get action when you're beaten. Opponents who can't defeat top-pair-no-kicker really can't be holding much, not unless they're on a draw to a hand that will win if it hits. It's the classic situation where you're destined to win a small pot or lose a big one. The notable exception would be if you are playing against opponents who are extremely loose.
Even top pair with top kicker is vulnerable to reverse implied odds. Moreover, a big over-pair, or bottom two pair, can also be candidates for reverse implied odds if the situation is right. A drawing hand can also fall victim to reverse implied odds, if it's vulnerable such as a draw to the low end of a straight, a baby flush, or a draw to a straight or flush on a board that's already paired.
Aside from the relative strength of your cards, several factors can contribute to reverse implied odds. One, you have a hand that is very unlikely to improve, with few or no clean outs. Two, if the pot is on the small side, since any large pot makes it more worthwhile to stay in. Three, if the community board is such that it's unlikely to give any of your opponents a decent second-best hand. Four, if your opponents are not committed to their hands. And five, if putting money into the pot on the flop makes it difficult or impossible for you to get away from your hand on a later round.
When you find yourself in a situation where all of the above factors are coming into play, your pot odds are always much worse than they seem.
Barbara Connors is a sucker for classic old movies, science fiction, and the St. Louis Cardinals. Her life's ambition is to figure out the unusual behavior patterns of that unique breed of humans who call themselves poker players. Contact her at fyreflye222@yahoo.com.
