by Tom "TIME" Leonard
The best way to avoid a swing and a miss is to keep your eye on the ball. While that’s good advice when standing in the batter’s box, what about when you’re sitting at the poker table and the flop completely misses you? This occurrence happens all too frequently. To cite one of the oldest laments in history, “If I had a nickel for every time... yadda, yadda, yadda!” I guess we would all be rich if we got paid for every time we missed the flop. So what should we do when this occurs?
I bet you know the answer to that question … it depends! Let’s examine a common situation such as holding a suited A-K in early position. OK, we raised before the flop and collected four passengers on our train ride to victory. Our first problem is we were out of position and our second is an ugly flop of 3-9-10 of mixed suits and our suited Big Slick is the missing suit. You had such high hopes for this great looking hand. What do you do now? Many players automatically make a continuation bet since they were the aggressor before the flop.
Automatically doing anything in poker is not winning play. Consistency is usually observed and exploited. Ralph Waldo Emerson wrote in his essay Self Reliance, “A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds,” and that quote would seem to apply here. We should all strive not to be too consistent, lest our more observant opponents draw a bead on our playing tendencies. With this hobgoblin caution in mind, the rationale for making a continuation bet after missing the flop includes the hope and belief that you still might have the best hand. If not, you have six outs to make a big pair. Hey, nobody could have hit that flop and checking is too wimpy. One may believe these elements constitute a compelling argument, or maybe not.
Since coming up empty after the flop is unfortunately a common occurrence, we should consider some other factors before acting on our default play of making a continuation bet. How many players are there to act behind you? The more opponents, the more likely it becomes that someone hit the flop and a more cautious check may be in order. How about the texture of the flop? Is it coordinated for straight or flush possibilities? Does it contain wheelhouse cards such as a ten or higher ranks? Are your opponents aggressive or generally passive? What is your current table image? Have you been continuation betting consistently during this session? These are all questions that you should be reviewing before the flop is even delivered, so you are prepared to act in a well informed manner. Unlike the supreme rule in the “I have to always be aggressive,” state of mind of many current players, there is no shame in checking on occasion.
Our goal for today’s time together is to remind ourselves not to play formulaic poker by always reacting to situations in the same manner. Taking a swing before the flop and then missing is too common an occurrence to play on mindless autopilot. When you’re faced with this swing and a miss dilemma, consider the critical elements outlined above before acting. Playing Big Slick can be profitable either due to the chips you win when the hand prevails or for the chips you save by mucking it early. Just remember to watch out for those hobgoblins!
See you next “TIME” Tom “Time” Leonard has played poker in Atlantic City, Las Vegas, and California for more than 30 years and written about the game since 1994. Contact Tom at thleonard@msn.com.
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