Double-ups, triple-ups, and quadruple-ups are far from the only components of tournament poker, but playing all-in situations properly is essential if you're to become a top tournament player. Whether you or your opponent faces elimination in a particular hand, the following process will ensure that you're considering all relevant factors in such situations.
Step 1 (Pot Odds): Figure out the ratio of how many chips you stand to win versus how many chips you have to call. Remember that if your opponent has you covered, his extra chips don't factor into your pot odds.
Step 2 (Equity for Neutral cEV): cEV refers to the number of chips you expect to have as the result of a decision. If a decision carries neutral cEV, then your equity (your expected stack if you call) needs to be the same as your current stack size. For example, if you have T1,500, and the pot will be T6,000 if you call, you need at least 25 percent equity to break even with respect to chips (T1,500 is 25 percent of T6,000).
Given that the pot odds found in the first step are X-to-1, the equity required for neutral cEV is:
Equity for Neutral cEV = (1/1+x)100%
While converting to equity may seem unnecessary, remembering equities is usually easier than remembering odds. Equities also naturally account for ties.
Step 3 (Equity Adjustment): Neutral cEV isn't always a great proxy for making tournament decisions. Payout structure, absolute stack sizes, and relative stack sizes all play a role in determining how much of a buffer you need for a call to be profitable. As a general guideline, the required buffer increases as payout structures get flatter.
Step 4 (Compare Your Actual Equity to Your Required Equity): If you need X percent equity, then you shouldn't call unless your equity is X percent. This step requires knowing the equity of your hand against the hand distributions of your opponents. Necessary knowledge for properly implementing this step: pre-flop all-in match-up equities, probabilities of hitting draws after the flop, and knowing how to weight equities according to the relative numbers of combinations for the hands comprising your opponents' hand distributions. For example, if your equity is 20 percent against 6 combinations each of A-A and K-K and 55 percent against 16 combinations of A-K then your overall equity is:
(12/28)20% + (16/28)55% = 40%
(For detailed explanations of executing this step at the tables, check out Appendix A in Tournament Killer Poker by the Numbers)
Here's an example to illustrate the entire process. You're playing in a multi-table tournament with a top-heavy payout structure. You're on the button with 8-8. Action folds to you. Blinds are T100-T200, and you have T2,000 remaining. You open to T550, the small blind folds, and the big blind shoves all-in to T3,000. You put him on [66+,A9+]. Should you call or fold?
Step 1: It's T1,450 to call, and there's T2,650 in the pot. You're getting 2,650-to-1,450 = 1.828-to-1 pot odds.
Step 2: The equity required for neutral cEV is:
Step 3: Since this is a multi-table tournament with a top-heavy payout structure, the required equity adjustment is probably at most around 1 percent. Because stacks are shallow with respect to the blinds, it could be argued that no equity adjustment should be made. Since the equity required for neutral cEV is 35.4 percent, your cutoff should be around 35.4 percent-36.4 percent.
Step 4: According to PokerStove (www.pokerstove.com), your equity is 47.337 percent. Since this figure is greater than 35.4 percent, it's a clear call.
Implementing this process quickly and accurately takes practice. Admittedly, even I sometimes mess it up when multi-tabling online. But in the end, the effort put into mastering this process is well worth it; this type of analysis is necessary if you want to make the best decisions possible.
Tony Guerrera is the author of Killer Poker by the Numbers and Killer Poker Shorthanded (with John Vorhaus). Visit him online at www.killerev.com, and check out his weekly show, Killer Poker Analysis, on Rounder's Radio (www.roundersradio.com) Fridays from 5:00PM to 6:00PM Pacific Time.
