While playing low-limit hold 'em at the Hustler Casino, it seemed that most players did not use the concept of pot odds and card odds in making key decisions. Perhaps as a consequence, most of them went home losers, so I thought it appropriate to share my perception of this important-and somewhat confusing-concept with you.
The Key Question. In a low-limit game, you hold a drawing hand, one that generally must improve to win the pot. That's a common situation. The majority of starting hands are not made hands that could win without further improvement. What's the best way to decide whether or not to call a bet to see the next card after the flop?
Answer: If the pot odds are greater than the card odds, it's a positive expectation bet and will be profitable in the long run-and vice versa.
Pot Odds and Card Odds Explained. Pot odds are easily determined: Simply divide the money in the pot by your cost to call. If the pot contains $40 and it costs you $4 to see the next card, you are getting 40/4 = 10-to-1 pot odds. This is the immediate pot odds. Implied pot odds are a bit more complicated: That's the amount of money you estimate will be in the pot at the showdown, allowing for further bets by your opponents on subsequent betting rounds. It's the amount you stand to win if you connect, divided by your cost to see the next card. I use implied pot odds only when the immediate pot odds are slightly less than the card odds, before I fold my hand.
Card odds are the odds against your hand improving to become the winner. Example: With Af-10fin the hole, you catch two more clubs on the flop, giving you four-to-the-nut flush. The card odds are the odds against a club falling on the turn. We can estimate card odds by multiplying the number of outs by 2. Nine clubs remain in the deck; these are your outs. Multiply the number of outs by 2, giving you 18 percent. Round off to 20 percent. This is the approximate chance (probability) of catching the fifth club on the next card. Then you can expect to miss 100% - 20% = 80% of the time. So your card odds are approximately 80-to-20 or about 4-to-1 against.
Since the pot odds in this case of 10-to-1 are much greater than the card odds, calling to see the turn card is a positive expectation bet. If the turn doesn't make your hand, then repeat the process to decide if you want to invest to see the river.
In this analysis, we have neglected your A-10 holecards. If you believe that a pair of aces with a ten kicker would take this pot, then you actually have three more outs (the remaining aces in the deck). Take this into consideration if the pot odds are slightly less than the card odds based only on making the nut flush.
Another Consideration. Before investing further in this hand, it is prudent to consider whether the hand you hope to make will be the best hand and take the pot, and it's often not easy to decide. Use your analysis of your opponent and how the betting has progressed thus far in the hand; look for tells-whatever you can-to make that decision. If there's significant doubt, then you need somewhat higher pot odds to call.
. . . So readers, what's YOUR opinion?
George "The Engineer" Epstein is the author of The Greatest Book of Poker for Winners! and Hold'em or Fold'em?-An Algorithm for Making the Key Decision and teaches poker at the Claude Pepper Sr. Citizen Center in Los Angeles. Contact George at geps222@msn.com.
