What's Luck Got To Do With It?

That's what a young kid told me the other day, as he racked up a 4/8 Hold'em table. He couldn't miss a hand, and had killed 5 pots in a row just before I left the table. Two days later, he was hanging around the poker room trying to borrow the buy-in to a $35 tournament! I said no.

He said he was a good investment because I saw him win $600 that day. Since he brought it up, I asked him what happened to the money. He related that he was in a game with some crazy players that played everything and he couldn't protect his good hands. He felt he was the victim of some bad luck.

"That's funny," I replied, " A couple of the players at that table made the same remarks about you, and I remember you said you didn't believe in luck!"

I offered to buy him lunch and we talked awhile. I reminded him that when he was winning, he acted cocky and smug. He was making comments like "Want my autographed book?"

When I had cautioned him to tone down as his luck was sure to change, he sang out; "What's luck got to do with it" just like Tina's song! He believed he was winning by playing the right hands at the right time, and that was purely his skill. He said luck was never a factor in his game.

I commented that if he didn't believe in good luck 2 days ago, then how can he believe in bad luck now? If he won with superior playing skills, then he must concede that he lost with inferior playing skills. We batted that around for a while, until he saw the foolishness of that logic.

We've all had hot rushes at times, and periods when we couldn't book a winner, no matter what. In 1994 I lost for 77 straight days and I was playing my A game. So the question is, which of the two, luck or skill, is more important?

I've seen poker books that tell you to follow their strategies and you will always win. Some even say that luck doesn't matter. But as much as I respect those gentlemen, I look at how they fare on TV and conclude that they, like me, need LUCK to make it to the winner's circle.

I agree that playing solid cards will make you a winner in the long run, but if I go to L.A. for a week of action, I didn't go there to lose. I went there to win that week, period! If everybody didn't think like that, then why did crazy hands like 10/2 win championships?

It's because luck does come into play in any game with a flop.

Recently, at the Paradise Casino's daily tournament in Tacoma, I was in the blind with 5/3 offsuit. Brian, in first position, had soft played pocket aces and let me in. The flop came 7/6/4 but I had checked dark. He bet and I gladly went all in with my straight. He called, then turned a 3rd ace and river'd another 7! There you have a great example of luck beating luck. Brian gave others a chance to outdraw him, but he lucked out.

So, how much luck or skill come into play at our poker table? You need to look at several variables before you decide that.

1. What's the limit?
2. Is it loose or tight? 3. Are there any drunks or fools?
4. Is the mood loud or quiet?
5. Are you catching cards?
6. Is anyone on a rush
7. How many callers per hand?

These are a few of the things I consider when I decide what hands to play. Usually, the higher the limit, the less luck comes into play, but don't ever assume that. Read your players to determine who respects raises. I'm always cautious if there are drunks and fools in the game, as they seem to have an uncanny drawing ability against me. If the table is loud, and everyone is aggressive, I tend to play more suited connectors than pairs, because I do better with those hands against many callers. They're easier to throw away if I flop nothing. I like an action table, but I play extremely tight until I see I'm making hands.

You have to admit that what you have seen on TV is not how you plan on playing each day. Playing a live game with hard cash is not like going all in to survive in a tournament. Some of those hands are the worst plays possible, and sometimes they're lucky and win.

But luck plays a large hand with good cards as well. I remember one hand in the 2004 Series where a guy put a player all in with pocket threes, while he held a pair of aces. The three hit the river. He did the right thing, but it was good luck for the threes. No book in the world can prepare you for a kick in the teeth from Lady Luck. No amount of skill could have changed that outcome.

In the games that I usually play, 3/6 to 10/20 limit, I would have to give luck a 70% importance rating. That is not to say, however, that skill is not important. On the contrary, you must have the skills required to read other players' hands, catch a bluffer, and conserve chips for opportune moments.

I have always preached against aggression in low limit games until you know the hand cannot be beat. That is simply because you need a tremendous amount of luck to have your preflop pair hold up against 5 to 8 callers. With that many players, many big cards are out and the "junk" cards have more outs to hit the board. I get tired of hearing bad beat stories about someone rivering a set of deuces. We call it bad luck, but in reality, the small pairs went up in value because the big cards were out. Maybe it was the real odds coming out and the skill was in determining that it was worth calling all bets.

The rating I give luck is for my set of circumstances. Your take on it depends on the game you're playing, at the time you're playing. It depends strictly on YOUR variables. The important thing to remember is that playing solid cards alone, or depending on luck alone, will not give you the chips every day. You must be sufficiently skilled to lay down good hands at the right time, and lucky enough to win with bad hands at the right time.