What's More Dangerous?

Assuming you don't hold any of the cards in question in your hand and there is no raise before the flop, what do you regard as more dangerous in a hold'em game: an ace on the flop, or a flop that contains either a ten or a jack? That was the subject of a discussion I had recently with a well-known poker theorist. One line of reasoning we discussed is that an ace is more dangerous because so many players are prone to play aces - any ace at all - and it doesn't much matter what the side card is.

Even if you've never thought much about this before, the next time you sit in a hold'em game take a look at the hands being turned over in a showdown. While you'll frequently find players holding A-6, A-2 and hands of that ilk, you seldom see anyone turning over K-2, Q-3, J-4 and similar hands unless they got a free play in the big blind.

While poker players are more prone to see a flop with an ace in their hand than a hand containing a jack or a ten, there's another school of thought that says a ten or a jack is more likely to be in an opponent's hand when the pot has not been raised, because those kind of cards - cards that lie near the bottom end of the playing zone - are played more often for one bet, particularly by players at the rear of the betting order.

Another line of reasoning suggests that the time you have to worry about your opponent holding an ace in his or her hand is when the pot is raised before the flop. With aces, those who follow this line of reasoning are either going to fold because their kicker is weak and they are out of position, or they are going to raise because their position is good, their kicker is strong, or they might be able to win the pot right then and there just by raising.

My personal opinion, and I have no hard, quantifiable evidence to back this up - it's simply anecdotal data gathered over a lot of poker tables - is that it really depends on the nature of the game.

In lower limit, no-fold'em hold'em games, where you frequently see four or more players taking the flop, some of those players will be in there with any ace. Period. End of story. A-2? "No problem, man; I'm calling!"

Ace-anything, it seems, is worth a look at the flop by many players, particularly if the pot was not raised. In fact, even when it is raised there are lots of players who will call in early position with any ace. They often wind up cold-calling a raise only to see a flop with a weak ace regardless of the position they are in.

In bigger games, and for want of something more precise, let's say we're talking about games of $15-$30 and above, players usually bring their ace in for a raise or they fold. If the pot was not raised before the flop in a higher limit game, and an ace flops, you can discount it much of the time.

But that's not the case if a ten or a jack appears on the flop, because in bigger limit games those are precisely the kind of hands many players will limp in with as long as they have a reasonable assurance of seeing the flop for one bet - and this reasonable assurance translates into playing a ten or a jack or a jack and a ten from late position with a large field for only one bet.

In a mid- or big-limit game, if the pot is not raised and an ace flops, I usually discount it for any hand other than one the blinds who were lucky enough to see a free or inexpensive flop. That makes a flop with a ten or jack scarier in an unraised pot. But in lower limit games, an ace on the flop stands a good chance of matching one in someone's hand.