If your money odds for winning are larger than your cards odds are against winning, you will win in the long run. If your money odds are smaller, you're just gambling and in the long run you will lose. Because money odds are so important to your financial health, we'll focus on money odds in the next few issues of Poker Player Newspaper.
We start with limit poker: Here your money odds are the chips already in the pot after the rake and the bad-beat drop, minus the dealer's toke-to-be, plus the chips you expect to win in subsequent rounds of betting, divided by the cost to see the next card.
Fred nodded wisely, but I was sure he needed an example to illustrate the principle. "Suppose you had an open-ended straight draw," I said. "You would have eight outs. As you learned in the September 15, 2008 issue of Poker Player Newspaper, you would divide your outs into 48 and then subtract one to find that your cards odds were 5-to-1 against making your straight on the turn. Unless the pot-to-be were to offer you money odds greater than 5-to-1, you should fold. That's the secret of profitable poker."
Fred asked for an example of figuring the pot odds. "Suppose you were in the small blind of a $2-$4 game with a 10 percent rake capped at $3, a bad-beat drop of $1, and a toke-to-be of $1," I said. "After you completed your blind, the big blind raised, and both limpers called, as did you. After the flop, you checked your open-ended straight draw, the big blind bet, and two players called. The pot would equal ($2+$4*3-$5) or $9. It would cost you $2 to see the turn card, so your at-the-moment pot odds would be 9-to-2, or 41/2-to-1."
Fred said, "Whoosh, all that arithmetic for each street?
"Yes," I answered, "and we need also to consider the bets you would win if you were to make your hand and it held up. If you were to make your hand on the turn, then you would count on net winnings of at least one more bet on the turn and river. So you add 2 to your money odds before the turn and 1 after the turn. In the example above your money odds would not be 41/2-to-1, but 61/2-to-1. If you had eight outs, then your cards odds would be 5-to-1 and you should call."
Fred asked why he should add two. "You're counting on winning at least one bet on the turn or river. Turn and river bets are double the pre-turn bets, so you add two.
"And suppose that after the dealer turned a brick, you checked, the big blind bets $4, one other player called and it's back to you. What would your money odds be," I asked Fred.
"The pot held $9 before the turn. The big blind and the limper added $8 to the pot, so my money odds would be $17-to-$4, or 41/4-to-1, less than 5-to-1. With eight outs my cards odds would still be 5-to-1 against, so I should fold," said Fred proudly.
"Well done, except you forgot to add the bet that you would win on the river when you make your straight. After the turn, you add one to your odds, so your money odds would be 51/4-to-1, larger than your cards odds. You should call," I corrected.
Mr. Burke is the author of Flop: The Art of Winning at Low-Limit Hold 'Em, on sale at amazon.com & kokopellipress.com.
