Continuation Bets in No-limit Hold em

For any given flop, the probability that an opponent misses the flop is a function of his hand distribution and the board cards. Your play on the flop will be a function of the flop and your opponents' hand distributions. But to keep things simple, your opponent will miss the flop about two-thirds of the time when he has unpaired hole cards. Your opponents won't fold to two-thirds of your flop bets:

• Sometimes your opponent has a pocket pair that doesn't need to match any cards on the flop.

• Sometimes your opponent has a draw.

• Sometimes your opponents may bluff by raising on the flop, or calling with the intention of bluffing on a subsequent betting round.

When heads-up on the flop, you should bet a good percentage of the time-even when you've missed. Betting a flop that doesn't help you after raising pre-flop, is a continuation bet. If you're to be a successful no-limit hold 'em player, you need to employ the continuation bet.

How Many Opponents Can You Continuation Bet Into? Although a single opponent will miss the flop about two-thirds of the time, the probability that all your opponents miss the flop decreases with more opponents. A rule of thumb is to avoid continuation betting into more than two opponents. You should also be cautious when continuation betting into two opponents-mainly because of bet sizing issues.

How Big Should Your Continuation Bets Be? Suppose you're in the big blind in a no-limit hold 'em game with $1-$2 blinds. Action folds to the button, who raises to $6. The small blind folds, and it's $4 for you to call. If you call and check on the flop, you know your opponent will make a pot-sized continuation bet 100 percent of the time.

Accounting for the implied odds created by your opponent's inevitable bet on the flop, you're getting $22-to-$4, or $5.5-to-$1 on your money. The odds against you hitting a pair with unpaired hole cards are only 2-to-1. Sure, you'll have a positional disadvantage after the flop, and you'll need to invest additional money too (you need to consider reverse implied odds). While you shouldn't defend the big blind with any two cards in this situation, this opponent is exploitable.

To keep your opponents from exploiting you, keep your continuation bets around half the size of the pot. You'll be surprised at how much fold equity this bet carries. You'll also be surprised at how much value you'll squeeze from your made hands with this bet.

The Frequency of Your Continuation Bets. A well-balanced attack entails continuation betting often enough to pick up pots but seldom enough to dissuade your opponents from bluffing you at will. To reduce the frequency of your continuation bets, let the flop dictate your action. With some minor exceptions, I always bet the flop heads-up when:

• I have at least a pair.

• I have a draw.

I always bet made hands-even those which will only be called by better hands-and I always semi-bluff.

When neither of these conditions is met, I'll also continuation bet unless the flop is likely to have helped my opponent:

• The flop contains at least two ranks that are ten or higher (players call raises with high cards).

• The flop is connected to the point where someone could have flopped a straight (players call raises with connected cards).

• The flop is monotone (with two hole cards, and players calling raises with high cards, chances are good that a continuation bet will have little fold equity).

The only time I'll continuation bet on boards like these is if I have ace-high on a draw-heavy board. Now my continuation bet is really a value bet against my opponents' draws, and when my opponent happens to have a pair, this bet with ace-high serves as a semi-bluff with over-card outs.

Many players shoot themselves in the foot by mistakes having to do with continuation betting. Avoid them, and the continuation bet will serve you as the weapon it's designed to be.

Tony Guerrera is the author of Killer Poker by the Numbers and Killer Poker Shorthanded (with John Vorhaus). Visit him online at www.killerev.com, and check out his weekly show, Killer Poker Analysis, on Rounder's Radio (www.roundersradio.com) Fridays from 5:00PM to 6:00PM Pacific Time.