Equilibrium Play and Table Selection

Social aspects aside, the goal of poker is to win as much money as possible. And since playing poker takes time, winning as much money as possible equates to optimizing your hourly win rate. Making the best decisions possible whenever it's your turn to act is part of time-efficient playing. But it's not enough.

Suppose you're in a friendly home game with no rake. You're playing 6-handed no-limit hold'em, and you and your five opponents are engaged in so-called non-exploitable equilibrium play. This doesn't mean that you break even in each position. Instead, the sum of play from all six positions is break-even; most likely, each player in six-handed equilibrium play will lose money from the blinds but win money from the button and the cutoff.

In such a game state, no player can change his style in order to perform better. You and your opponents will all break even in the long run. Moreover, if you change your style, you will lose money in the long run-even if your opponents don't change how they play.

While it's still somewhat safe for those believing that poker is all about dramatic reads and adaptation, it's important to be aware that certain components of no-limit hold 'em have been solved completely-like the short-stacked jam/fold endgame of single table tournaments.

Instead of being in a friendly home game, suppose you're playing online or in a brick-and-mortar card room. As soon as rake enters the picture, you and your opponents are toast. Despite the fact that you are all incapable of being beaten by any player in the world, you will all lose money to the house if you play each other in a game with rake.
I question the validity of many supposed tomes of poker wisdom.

One of them goes along the lines of, "it doesn't matter if you're the ninth best poker player in the world if you're sitting at the table with the top eight players in the world." I like this one, but it's only about half right. Honestly, you can be the best player in the world, and it still doesn't matter if your edge at a particular table isn't great enough to overcome the rake.

Whenever you're sitting in a game you need to have a very solid, concrete, and honest answer to this question: "Where's my edge, and how big is it?" Don't let your ego get in the way. After all, I've just suggested that it's possible to lose to the rake even if you're the best player in the world.

Poker is an extremely harsh battlefield; your winnings result from the mistakes that your opponents make. You need to be playing at tables filled with opponents who make mistakes, and because of that, you should never complain when your opponents make mistakes and win hands. And even then, since your goal is to maximize your hourly win rate, you always need to scout other tables for players who are making even bigger mistakes than the ones you're currently playing.

When playing online, dedicate some screen space to monitoring other tables and joining wait lists for tables that look more profitable than yours, and keep a list of the worst players that you play against so you can ruthlessly search out and target them whenever you're playing. Use table selection software such as Spade Eye (www.spadeit.com) if your online poker room of choice doesn't ban it. Meanwhile, when playing in a brick-and-mortar card room, occasionally stand up and scan the tables around you.

Don't be lazy about table selection. It's always tempting to sit at the first available table and stay there until your butt falls asleep. But disciplined table selection is perhaps the biggest key to beating poker. You don't need to be a genius when it comes to game theory and solve for the Nash equilibrium of the poker variant you like to play. All you need to do is seek and destroy those who play worse than you do!

Tony Guerrera is the author of Killer Poker by the Numbers and Killer Poker Shorthanded (with John Vorhaus). Visit him online at www.killerev.com, and check out his weekly show, Killer Poker Analysis, on Rounder's Radio (www.roundersradio.com) Fridays from 5:00PM to 6:00PM Pacific Time.