Poker players already know it. Others who have studied the game, even from an outside perspective as game theory experts or statistics professors, know it. But some within the poker community understood that something needed to be done to prove that skill dominates the luck factor in poker.
There are court cases occurring all over the United States in which poker is grouped in with other gambling activities as a game of chance, therefore relegating it to a broad category of illegal games. Even members of the U.S. Congress fear the idea of Rep. Barney Frank pushing an online poker legalization bill, as it represents sinful gambling in some minds. These recurring situations began to show a desperate need for concrete proof, complete with all of the numbers that any math whiz would care to crunch, to show that poker is, in fact, a game of skill.
PokerStars teamed up with Rational Entertainment Enterprises Limited (REEL) in 2008 to formulate a study to prove just that. They gathered hands from PokerStars that were played between December 1, 2008 and January 2, 2009 from real-money micro-limit games-from 10-cent to 50-cent blinds only-and gathered data from the 103 million hands. And in the end, authors Paco Hope (Cigital Technical Manager), Brian Mizelle (Cigital Managing Principal), and Sean McCulloch, Ph.D. (Associate Professor at Ohio Wesleyan University) compiled their results into a study entitled "Statistical Analysis of Texas Hold'Em" and released it to the public in late March 2009.
The report, published by Cigital, summarized some of its findings with some clear numbers that reflect the skill level in poker. In the end, only 24.3 percent of the hands played went to a showdown, and 50.3 percent of those won with the best five-card hand. Only 12 percent of the hands played resulted in a win by making the best hand early and taking it all the way to a showdown. Those statistics show, beyond any doubt, that the vast majority of hands played in poker can be won without having the best hand, which means that tells, style of play, math, and overall knowledge of the game mean more than the exact value of the cards.
Lead author Hope stated, "This study uses an unprecedented amount of real data to demonstrate what players have long known: the decisions they make are the dominating factor influencing the outcome of the game."
With such a study to back up the argument that poker is a game of skill and should be categorized thusly, pro-poker arguments in court rooms and political forums can only be helped. And considering the fact that more judges and powerful figures in such debates are beginning to recognize this anyway, it may only be a matter of time before poker is judged on its own merits, as is backgammon or chess.
April is the month that Rep. Barney Frank is scheduled to reintroduce H.R. 2046, his piece of legislation drafted to legalize online gaming and provide for the regulation of it. When debate begins in committee for the bill, which he has acknowledged will be a standalone one and not attached to any other legislation, the Cigital study can only assist in the testimony presented in favor of the bill's passage. In all likelihood, it is no coincidence that the study was published one month before Frank's intended bill introduction, but regardless of the timing and motivation, with statistics on the side of poker, there could be legal, regulated online poker in the cards for 2009.
Jennifer Newell is a compulsive writer. In addition to Poker Player Newspaper, she writes for numerous publications and blogs at Pokerati.com as California Jen. In her little bit of spare time, she plays poker, too. Contact her at jen3351@msn.com.








