How Would You Play This Hand, Part 1

A poker playing friend asked me to comment on two hands he played. One was played in a cash game; the other in a tournament. The issues point out some of the major differences between tournament and cash game play. We'll talk about one of the hands now, and the other in the second part of this short series.

SITUATION NUMBER 1. "In a $10-$20 Texas hold 'em cash game, I was dealt pocket nines and considered raising, but because I was in early-middle position, I just called. No one raised, and five players saw the flop, which was 4-4-2 of mixed suits.

"The player in the small blind came out betting. I was considering whether to raise or call, when an opponent to the small blind's left beat me to the punch. I knew the small blind frequently overplays his hands and likes to come out betting-or even raising-with mediocre holdings, and sometimes with nothing at all.

"The raiser fancies himself a very strong player, certain he can always put each of his opponents on a hand, but he's not nearly as strong a player as he thinks. He has a weakness for suited cards, and will usually play almost every suited hand.

"While I'm fairly certain my pair of nines is better than the small blind's hand, I'm not sure about the raiser, since it's difficult for me to put him on a hand. He could have a pair of queens, jacks, or tens and not raised before the flop. He might also have a hand like K-4 suited, or he might even be raising on a draw with A-3 or A-5. A pair of sixes, sevens, or eights, or even A-K is a possibility.

"There are two players to act after me, and I believe one of them will cold-call the raise and the other will release his hand. Moreover, I expect the small blind to either call or reraise. Thinking I have only two outs and may not win even if I catch another nine, I decide to fold my hand. Was this the correct play, based on my analysis of the other players?"

MY RESPONSE. Raising or folding is preferable to calling. Calling might even attract additional players who would probably have thrown their hands away if you raised, and it does not help you define the hands held by the two players who already acted.

Since the small blind plays any two cards under most circumstances, he's more likely to hold nothing at all than he is to have one of the two remaining fours. If the second player does hold a four, he'll just call if you re-raise, planning to check-raise the turn-when betting limits double.

But if you three-bet the flop and he checks the turn, you can bet if you believe neither of them has a four or an over-pair bigger than your pair of nines, or you can check behind them and save a bet if you're beaten. Checking the turn might even induce a bluff on the river, which you can easily snap off with your pair of nines.

The key to your decision is the trickier player who acts immediately before you do. I assume he'd have raised before the flop with A-K, or with a pair of aces, kings, queens, or jacks, so I'd discount the chances that he's has any of those hands. A pair of tens is possible. So is a four suited to an ace or king. He might also have a pair of eights, sevens, sixes, or even fives. Since your hand is probably better than most of his potential holdings, my inclination is to raise-although folding is not a bad decision either. Although he plays lots of hands, the small blind might just have a real hand this time. Because it's more difficult to beat two opponents than just one, folding is a good option too.

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