Belly-Buster

Richard Burke

LindaMae swung past me muttering, "I don't know how he does it because my daddy told me never draw to an inside Straight, but George did it and won a big pot on the River, having raised before the Flop with a three-gap, suited connector and acted like he played the hand correctly, smiling as he stacked a big pot at that $2-4 Hold'Em table I just left because I couldn't stand it any longer." "Stop," I said, patting a chair, "park your caboose on this siding here, and let off steam by telling me what happened."

On the button in a ten-handed game, George raised pre-Flop with [7d]-[3d]. The Small Blind called. In the big blind with [Ah]-[Td], LindaMae called. Five limpers called. Eight-handed they saw the dealer flop [6s]-[5c]-[Th].

Holding Top Pair, Top Kicker, LindaMae led with $2 after the Small Blind checked. Five called. The dealer turned the [Ac], making the top Two Pairs for LindaMae. She led with $4. Four called. The dealer put the [4s] on the table. LindaMae saw the possible Straight, deemed it unlikely, and led with a $4 bet. Everyone folded except George, who raised. She called; George showed down his 2nd-nut Straight and stacked a $75 pot after the toke, house rake, and bad-beat drop. "How could he play that hand so badly?" she asked.

Your daddy's advice is correct for Draw, I told her. But for Hold'Em, with its three rounds of betting before the River and typically many limpers at its lower limits, the pot odds can make drawing to an inside Straight profitable.

George is a rational player, I told her. He had a 15% chance for a good Flop (3.3% for Two Pairs or Trips, 11% for two diamonds, plus a small chance for a Straight or better). When five players limped, George counted on them to call another bet, and gambled that you and/or the Small Blind would also call. Post-Flop, George had 4 outs: any Four out of the 47 unknown cards would make a Straight. At his turn to act, his pot odds were $39 for $2, an easy call. Post-Turn, George had three clean outs, (the 4f would have put three trumps on the tableau). His cards odds were about 1 in 15 (3/46). His pot odds were about 16 for 1 ($67 for $4) because he was sure you would call his bet if he hit the Straight. His expectation was positive, and even if the 4f did appear, someone's having a Flush wasn't certain. "Why didn't he fear that someone held the nut Straight?" she asked. George knew that his 2ndnut Straight would win 82% of the time, I told her. ("Straight Skinny," Poker Player, March 7, 2005, p. 18.) When you led the betting when the dealer turned the Ace, he put you on Two Pairs. Then when everyone else folded to your River bet, he knew that he had the better hand.

George knows that bigger pots pre-Flop always give him better pot odds on the Turn and River. He knows also that when holding gapped connectors, inside Straight draws are more likely than openended draws. Knowing George, I asked her, don't you think that he raised pre-Flop in part because he suspected he might need big pot odds on the later streets. LindaMae didn't answer, which I took to mean,"Yes, he made a great play raising with those rags."

More in Strategy

Today we will end our discussion of straight draws by looking at hands containing double connectors with no gaps, one gap and two gaps. We will look at all combinations of how the hand may be suited and include the non-suited variety.

Each of these simulations was run a minimum of 100,000 times with many run a million or more. As usual they were run at a full tight table with the same tight players playing each hand from all positions... read more