Applied Luck

John Vorhaus

A while back, we were talking about different types of bluffs. Here's another one for you consideration, one that relies on a phenomenon known as applied luck. Applied luck is not quite the same as general, or garden-variety, luck, which just amounts to running good or running bad. To enjoy applied luck is to receive the right hand at the right time, in a confluence of cards, image, and recent history. This harmonic convergence adds up to an excellent bluffing opportunity.

NAME OF BLUFF: CAUGHT STEALING -- AND STEALING AGAIN

YOUR IMAGE: You've been caught bluffing in the recent past. Now that the flush of embarrassment has faded, you're turning your attention to the salient question of how to use your larcenous table image against your foes.

YOUR TARGET: Prideful, arrogant, ego-driven players who have recently enjoyed the satisfaction of catching you with your hand in the cookie jar. They wouldn't mind snapping you off again, because thieving bastards like you need to be kept in their place.

THE SITUATION: You were caught bluffing. It felt like the end of the world. It wasn't. It was the end of your old image (tight, perhaps, yet savvy) and the start of your new image: chastened by defeat, and capable of almost any eccentricity. THE BLUFF: Here's where applied luck comes in. Should you be fortunate enough to pick up a real hand shortly after having been caught stealing, you have the opportunity to essay what looks like a tiltdriven drive. Your opponents won't credit you with good cards. They'll assume that you're stung by your recent setback and, like so many of them, are now trying to exorcise your psychic pain by pushing another hand too far, too fast. In this instance, you're actually bluffing that you don't have a hand. It's called "bluffing with the best of it," and it's a consummation devoutly to be wished.

NUANCE: Your foes know you just got caught, and may suspect that you're now on tilt. (Reinforce this suspicion by making many tilt-like noises.) Even so, they won't expect you to drive-bluff again very soon because they know that you know you're likely to get called. When you bet, then, they ought to credit you with a real hand, and fold. But they're damned if they'll let you resume your thieving ways so soon, and without a fight; using your own tilty behavior to justify their bad call, they'll go ahead and pay you off. Remember, these are ego-driven players, and their egos will take them places their wallets shouldn't go.

WHAT NEXT: Settle down. Circumstances have allowed you to steal some chips by masquerading as a maniac. You were lucky to have caught a real hand when you needed it, but don't push your (applied) luck too far. Let the cards and the character of the table determine where your image goes next. CAVEAT: The trouble with too far is you never know you're going till you've gone. If you think you're faking tilt, but you really are on tilt, you'll try to push second-rate hands like first-rate hands and end up losing all your chips. In all instances, know your own mind, and don't let emotion rule -- or ruin -- your game.

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