Money Odds, Part 2

Richard G. Burke

When Fred plunked himself down, I asked if he knew three letters beginning with ‘A,’ for ‘Bread machine.’ (He didn’t.) He wanted to know more about money odds.

“You should pay to see the next card,” I said, “only when the money odds for you exceed the card odds against you. If you’ll follow that rule, then you’ll have your very own ‘bread machine,’ otherwise you’ll just be gambling.

“To obtain your card odds, divide 48 by your ‘outs’ and subtract 1,” I reminded him. “For example, if you have 6 outs, then you’ll make your hand on the very next card one time in eight, for cards odds of 7-to-1 against.” Fred nodded agreement and asked about ‘implied’ odds.

“That’s why you add two to your pot odds before the turn, and one before the river. If you make your hand on the turn or the river, then you’ll win one or more large bets. A large bet is worth two small bets in a limit game, so you add two before the bets double and only one after the bets double. (If you’re playing limit hold ’em where the bets double again on the river, or ‘river down’ hold ’em, then you should also add two to your pot odds after you see the turn.) Although you might win more than that, this rule is a simple way to account for ‘implied’ odds, and if it errs, it errs conservatively.”

Fred looked puzzled, so I created this example. “Suppose you raised before the flop with Ah-Qh in late position in a $4-$8 hold ’em game. There would be $29 in the pot after the $5 rake, drop, and toke-to-be, if the big blind and two limpers called your raise. If the dealer flopped 8d-3s-2s, then you would have 6 outs. Therefore one time in eight, the dealer would lay an ace or queen on the turn. The three callers check to you. What are your card and money odds,” I asked Fred, “and should you bet?”

Fred thought for a moment and then said, “The pot odds are 29 to 4, or 71/4-to-1. “I add 2 to arrive at my money odds, so my money odds would be 91/4-to-1. I divide 6 into 48 and subtract 1, for card odds of 7-to-1 against. 91/4-to-1 is larger than 7-to-1, so I should bet!”

“Absolutely correct,” I agreed, “and furthermore, they might all fold to your bet, an easy win. But suppose two called, the dealer put 9h on the turn, and they checked to you again.”

Fred reasoned: “My bet and the two callers’ bets added $12 to the pot, for pot odds of 41-to-8, or 5-to-1. I add 1 to obtain money odds of 6-to-1. My card odds are still 7-to-1, so I shouldn’t bet, just take the free card.”

“First,” I responded, “if you bet and even one player called, then your money odds would be 49-to-8 plus 1, or 7-to-1, about equal to your card odds. Second, you might win the pot at once. Third, if you didn’t bet, then your opponents would (correctly) put you on a big ace.”

“So,” asked Fred, “if my money odds for are equal to or larger than my card odds against , then I should always bet?”

“Unless you intuit that an opponent is just itching to check-raise you,” I answered, “yes.”

Mr. Burke is the author of Flop: The Art of Winning at Low-Limit Hold ’Em, on sale at amazon.com & kokopellipress.com. E-mail your Hold ‘em questions to richardburke@comcast.net

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